Should Nuggets Fans Worry About Phil Jackson's 40

With a long history, the NBA has plenty of trends that show what it takes to raise the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Arguably the most popular trend has become Phil Jackson's 40-20 rule. The legendary coach said that a true title contender must secure 40 wins before they suffer 20 losses, and only three teams this season fit the criteria: Detroit Pistons, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs.

41 of 45 NBA champions since 1980 have fit into this criteria, with the only exception in the last 19 years being the 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, and before that, the most recent was the 2006 Miami Heat.

According to Phil Jackson’s infamous 40-20 rule, only 3 teams meet the criteria: Thunder, Pistons and Spurs 👀

Do you think one of these teams are winning the NBA championship? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/utRQFIHYUn
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 26, 2026

The Denver Nuggets, sitting at 37-23, obviously missed out on 40 wins before 20 losses. Is it enough reason to be concerned about a hopeful championship run?

Nuggets fall short of 40-20 rule

The Nuggets went just 4-7 through 11 games in February, which is the main reason they even fell short of Jackson's "40 before 20" rule. Not to mention all of the injuries they have dealt with.

The Nuggets have not even had a complete starting lineup since November, let alone a fully healthy roster. Key absences to Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Cam Johnson, and more have significantly held back this year's Nuggets team, but that is exactly why they should not sweat about the 40-20 rule.

The Nuggets are more than capable of winning a title with this group, and even if you strongly believe in the 40-20 rule, it is hard to deny how they are arguably the NBA's best team when healthy. Of course, the key will be their health, as they are banking everything on the scenario where they have everyone back on the floor in the postseason.

Nuggets' early season success tells the whole story

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic reacts along side forward Aaron Gordon — Jan 23, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) reacts along side forward Aaron Gordon (32) following a full court basket made in the second half against the Sacramento Kings at Ball Arena. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Through their first 12 games of the season, the Nuggets were healthy and dominating. In that stretch, the Nuggets had the league's second-best offensive rating and third-best defensive rating, posting a 10-2 record with one overtime loss and one two-point loss.

In fact, the Nuggets became just the fifth team in NBA history to win nine of their first 12 games by double-digits. The other four teams all went to the NBA Finals in the same season, while three of them were champions, per StatsPerform's Jake Coyne.

The 2025-26 Denver Nuggets are the fifth team in NBA history to have 9+ of their first 12 games be double-digit wins.

They join:

2024-25 Thunder (won Finals)
1996-97 Bulls (won Finals)
1984-85 Celtics (lost Finals)
1962-63 Celtics (won Finals) pic.twitter.com/CNNcnDOLv0
— Jake Coyne (@TheStatSquatch) November 16, 2025

Typically, this would be a throw-away stat that does not hold much weight, but when that is the only sample size we have gotten of the Nuggets at full strength, it becomes notable.

There is no doubt that the Nuggets can contend for a title when healthy, and just because they suffered 20 losses before reaching 40 wins should not drag this team down too much. There are always exceptions to trends, and the Nuggets are looking to become the second team in the last six years to break Jackson's rule.

The Nuggets should have plenty of confidence this postseason, and with Gordon and Watson expected to return to action soon, we will get a clearer picture of what they are capable of.