Indiana Pacers Draft Lottery Outcomes, Ranked by Probability and Targets

The Indiana Pacers enter the NBA Draft Lottery in a rare and high-stakes position, with a tightly packed range of outcomes that could swing their direction dramatically. Unlike most lottery teams, Indiana’s pick comes with built-in consequences tied to prior roster moves, specifically the protections attached from the Ivica Zubac trade.

If the pick lands at No. 5 or No. 6, it conveys to the Los Angeles Clippers. If Indiana keeps the pick this year, the Clippers instead receive an unprotected 2031 first-round selection.

The Pacers have never won the NBA Draft Lottery in franchise history. Their highest-ever pick came in 1988 when they selected Rik Smits at No. 2 overall.

Here is how every possible outcome breaks down.

Here is everything you need to know about the Draft Lottery in 4 days 🗒 pic.twitter.com/bUgR8vdHJN
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) May 7, 2026

6th Overall 20.1% Chance

This is the most painful outcome for Indiana because it triggers the conveyance to the Los Angeles Clippers.

If the Pacers land here, they lose the pick entirely and send it to LA due to the protections tied to the Ivica Zubac trade.

5th Overall 27.8% Chance

This is the single most likely outcome, but it also carries the same consequence as 6th.

At 5, the Pacers still do not keep the pick. It automatically conveys to the Clippers. From a roster-building standpoint, this becomes a missed opportunity in a strong lottery range, especially given the depth of top-tier prospects available in this range.

4th Overall 12.0% Chance

At 4, Indiana finally keeps control of its selection.

This is where the Pacers enter the top tier of the draft and gain access to elite prospects such as Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson. Any of these players would immediately become franchise-altering options depending on how Indiana views its long-term core.

3rd Overall 12.7% Chance

A drop from their position at two yet still one of the most valuable positions in the draft.

At 3, Indiana is guaranteed access to one of the top-tier prospects. Boozer, Peterson, and Wilson are all in play here, giving the Pacers a true franchise-building opportunity.

2nd Overall 13.4% Chance

At 2, Indiana is firmly in elite territory.

This is a clear best-player-available scenario among the top group. Boozer, Peterson, and Wilson remain the core decision point, with Indiana selecting a potential franchise cornerstone to pair with Tyrese Haliburton.

1st Overall 14.0% Chance

Boom, Indiana finally breaks through.

At 1, the Pacers would have full control of the draft and would likely target AJ Dybantsa as the consensus top prospect. This would be a franchise-defining moment, especially given their historical lack of lottery success.

🔥NEW ARTICLE🔥

Why Darryn Peterson Could Be the Perfect Fit for the Indiana Pacers

Despite concerns surrounding injuries and narratives, Darryn Peterson’s long-term upside makes him an intriguing option for Indiana.

My latest👇https://t.co/ukjhjSyjFp
— Alex Golden (@AlexGoldenNBA) May 6, 2026

Top 4 Overall Odds 52.1% Chance

If the Pacers land inside the top four, they not only keep the pick but also gain access to elite-level prospects who can immediately reshape the franchise trajectory. Boozer, Peterson, Wilson, and Dybantsa represent the full range of transformational outcomes.

The Indiana Pacers sit in one of the most outcome-sensitive lottery positions in the league. While they have a strong chance to jump into the top four, the most likely result still sends the pick to the Clippers. But may the lottery balls be in Indiana's favor and help the Pacers go back to the Finals.

Add us as a preferred source on Google