Exploring a North Carolina possibility for the Pacers

The Indiana Pacers are 4–6 over their last 10 games and remain last in the Eastern Conference at 10–32. They are still on track to secure the best odds for the first overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, but nothing is guaranteed on lottery nights. With variance always looming, Indiana must be prepared for every outcome. Today, we explore a prospect who could realistically be on the board if the Pacers slide to the fourth pick.

The Caleb Wilson Possibility

Caleb Wilson has taken college basketball by storm. The freshman power forward is playing at as high a level as anyone in the country. The North Carolina big man has been an instant-impact player all season. A consensus top-10 high school prospect entering his freshman year, the five-star recruit has already played his way into the top four of the 2026 NBA Draft.

Caleb Wilson vs Stanford tonight..

26 PTS (11-16 FG, 4-7 FTs)
9 REBS
3 AST
2 STLS
1 BLK

Top 3 Pick… pic.twitter.com/CiYUepMRiw
— Frankie Vision (@Frankie_Vision) January 15, 2026

The Numbers

Caleb is a 6’10”, 215-pound freshman having an outstanding statistical season. He is averaging 19.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. He ranks 14th in the country in free throw attempts per game, a highly translatable NBA skill, and 6th nationally in rebounds per game. That’s better than Cam Boozer, who sits 24th. You can read more about him here.

Floor spacing remains the swing skill. Wilson is shooting just 25 percent from three in his first year, and his free throw percentage (69.2 percent) does not inspire confidence that the jumper will quickly come around.

His advanced metrics are equally impressive on the offensive end. He ranks seventh among draft prospects in total points per 40 minutes (25.7) and eighth in offensive rebounds per 40 (5.0). He is third among NCAA prospects in PER (32.8), trailing only Boozer and Darryn Peterson, and is eighth in offensive win shares per 40 minutes (17 percent).

Defensively, the numbers hold up as well. Wilson ranks 25th among prospects in block percentage (4.5 percent), 21st in steal percentage (2.8 percent), and second in defensive win shares (15 percent).

The Evaluation

Caleb Wilson is a premier two-way talent. He is excellent out of the low post, particularly on the left block, where he can turn and fade over either shoulder. That touch extends out to the foul-line area. His drop-step footwork is advanced for his age and accounts for a large portion of his scoring. That said, he is still raw and can play borderline out of control at times.

What stands out most is his relentless motor on both ends of the floor. Defensively, he attacks switches, can play in drop coverage, and provides weakside shot blocking. He finishes possessions by rebounding and immediately pushing the ball himself in transition. His elite athleticism makes him a nightmare in the open floor, either as a ball-handler or a lob threat in transition and the half court. He is elite at drawing fouls, a skill that translates to any NBA roster.

Wilson is a top-five pick without hesitation. For a rebuilding franchise, the decision becomes philosophical. Do you bet on a prospect whose floor is still developing but whose ceiling could alter the trajectory of the organization? Wilson has the tools to make multiple All-Star teams and grow into the best player on a championship roster. The counter argument is development stalling before he ever becomes a true franchise engine. Those are the margins general managers live on. Wilson’s motor, competitiveness, and work ethic significantly reduce that risk.

For the Pacers, this pick is a pivot point. Indiana does not need another usage-heavy scorer. They need a tone-setter. A two-way forward who raises the team’s physical ceiling, defends across lineups, rebounds to end possessions, and punishes teams in transition. Wilson fits cleanly next to Tyrese Haliburton as a vertical threat, a foul magnet, and a defensive eraser who can grow into a featured role. If Indiana wants to close the gap on teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio, the path forward is not incremental scoring upgrades. It is impact. Caleb Wilson represents that swing.