Why This NBA Draft Lottery Could Change Everything for the Indiana Pacers

Indiana enters the NBA Draft Lottery with the league’s worst record and a rare chance to finally secure the first No. 1 overall pick in franchise history.

Mar 21, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle looks on in the first half against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers are sitting at 16-56 with the worst record in the NBA. This has been a tough season for Indiana fans. The Pacers are one year removed from an NBA Finals run, and for the Pacers, everything now comes down to the NBA Draft Lottery.

As brutal as the year has been, it could end up shaping the franchise’s future in a massive way.

The Pacers currently hold a 52.1% chance of landing a top-four pick and a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, tied with the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets for the best odds in the league. That alone makes this lottery one of the most important moments in franchise history.

Why? Because the Pacers are one of just six teams in NBA history that have never had the No. 1 overall pick.

Think about that for a second. Decades of basketball. Multiple playoff runs. Conference Finals appearances and an NBA Finals appearance. Hall of Fame players. And yet, Indiana has never once been able to build around the top selection in the draft. That is a sign of a good organization that has competed throughout the years, but it's also a sign that they may be due.

Mar 18, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Ivica Zubac (40) reacts to a basket in the first half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

the stakes are even higher for Indiana because of the Ivica Zubac trade. If the Pacers fall outside the top four, their first-round pick would convey to the Los Angeles Clippers. In other words, this lottery isn’t just about improving their roster; it’s about keeping control of their own future.

What Landing No. 1 Would Actually Change

Feb 11, 2026; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (left to right) and guard T.J. McConnell (9) and forward Obi Toppin (1) watch from the bench during the second quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

If the Pacers do win the lottery, it would instantly shift the energy around this organization. A No. 1 pick gives a team hope. It gives fans something real to believe in after a season full of losses. More importantly, it gives the front office a true centerpiece to build around.

With Tyrese Haliburton expected back next season from injury, pairing him with a top overall pick could speed up Indiana’s timeline and put them back in contention in the East.

Why A.J. Dybantsa Makes Sense

If Indiana does get the No. 1 pick, BYU forward A.J. Dybantsa feels like a very natural fit. He checks a lot of boxes this roster currently lacks.

He’s a big wing with scoring instincts, athleticism, and defensive upside, the exact type of modern NBA forward teams are desperate to find. Indiana has struggled with consistency on both ends this season, and Dybantsa’s versatility could help immediately. He can push the pace, finish in transition, create mismatches, and has the tools to develop into a strong multi-positional defender.

For a team that has never picked first overall, this lottery feels bigger than usual. It’s not just about draft position. It’s about finally changing a piece of history that has followed the Pacers for generations.

After a season where almost everything went wrong, the future of Indiana basketball might come down to one night and a few bouncing ping-pong balls.