What NBA Draft Lottery History Says About the Pacers’ Best Tanking Position

With “tanking buzz” dominating NBA conversations right now, it feels like the perfect time to revisit the history of the NBA Draft Lottery and determine where the most favorable landing spots actually are.

In 2019, the NBA flattened the lottery odds in an effort to discourage tanking. The idea was simple: reduce the incentive to finish with the worst record. In practice, however, teams have still positioned themselves strategically for optimal draft odds.

Because the Indiana Pacers are only eligible for a Top 4 pick, this analysis focuses strictly on which inverse standings positions ultimately landed in the Top 4 after the lottery.

2019 Lottery Results

In 2019, the Pelicans jumped from the seventh worst record to win the No. 1 pick, Memphis moved from eighth to second, the Knicks slid from worst to third, and the Lakers leapt from 11th to fourth. Only one bottom-four team stayed in the Top 4.

2020 Lottery Results

In 2020, Minnesota (third worst) won the lottery, Golden State (worst) picked second, Charlotte (eighth worst) jumped to third, and Chicago (seventh worst) moved to fourth.

2021 Lottery Results

cade scottie — February 19, 2022; Cleveland, OH, USA; Team Rookies player Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors (4) and Team Rookies player Cade Cunningham of the Detroit Pistons (2) during the Skills Challenge during the 2022 NBA All-Star Saturday Night at Rocket Mortgage Field House. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

In 2021, Detroit (second worst) secured No. 1, Houston (worst) picked second, Cleveland (fifth worst) moved to third, and Toronto (seventh worst) landed fourth.

2022 Lottery Results

mosely — May 17, 2022; Chicago, IL, USA; Orlando Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley and NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum pose after Orlando Magic won the first pick during the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery at McCormick Place. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

In 2022, Orlando (second worst) won the lottery, Oklahoma City (fourth worst) moved to second, Houston (worst) picked third, and Sacramento (seventh worst) jumped to fourth.

2023 Lottery Results

In 2023, San Antonio (third worst) won No. 1, Charlotte (fourth worst) picked second, Portland (fifth worst) moved to third, and Houston (second worst) landed fourth. The team with the worst record fell out of the Top 4.

2024 Lottery Results

In 2024, Atlanta (10th worst) won the lottery, Washington (second worst) picked second, Brooklyn/Houston (ninth worst) moved to third, and San Antonio (fifth worst) landed fourth. The worst record again fell outside the Top 4.

2025 Lottery Results

In 2025, Dallas (11th worst) won No. 1, San Antonio (eighth worst) moved to second, Philadelphia (fifth worst) picked third, and Charlotte (third worst) landed fourth.

Over seven drafts under flattened odds, the lottery has consistently rewarded teams outside the bottom three, while even the worst record has only stayed in the Top 4 four times.

It’s also worth noting which current lottery teams have not won the No. 1 overall pick since the NBA flattened its lottery odds in 2019. That group includes the Sacramento Kings, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers.

With no repeat winners under the flattened system, history suggests the door remains wide open for one of these franchises.

What the Numbers Say (2019–2025)

Here’s how often each inverse standing position finished in the Top 4 over the last seven lotteries:

Worst record: 4 of 7

2nd worst: 4 of 7

3rd worst: 3 of 7

4th worst: 2 of 7

5th worst: 4 of 7

6th worst: 0 of 7

7th worst: 4 of 7

8th worst: 3 of 7

9th worst: 1 of 7

10th worst: 1 of 7

11th worst: 2 of 7

12th worst: 0 of 7

13th worst: 0 of 7

14th worst: 0 of 7

The 6th worst record has never moved into the Top 4 since the lottery flattening.

Meanwhile, teams finishing with the worst, second worst, fifth worst, and seventh worst records have each landed in the Top 4 four times.

What This Means for Indiana

Jun 23, 2022; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona) shakes hands with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number six overall pick by the Indiana Pacers in the first round of the 2022 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

If history is any indicator, Indiana’s strongest lottery positions would be finishing with:

The 1st worst record
The 2nd worst record
The 5th worst record
The 7th worst record

The 3rd and 8th worst spots have also produced reasonable results, jumping into the top four, three out of seven times.

But if there’s one position to absolutely avoid? The 6th worst record.

Seven years. Zero Top 4 jumps.

There are no guarantees in the lottery. But if history repeats itself, Indiana’s path to maximizing its odds is clear: avoid the No. 6 pick at all costs. Landing with one of the 1st, 2nd, 5th or 7th worst records in the NBA has rewarded those teams more than punished them.