What If the Pacers Traded Their Top-Four Pick?

The Indiana Pacers are in a rare position, one that very few teams ever find themselves in. Less than half a game away from winning their first-ever NBA championship, they now sit with the second-worst record in the league and at the top of the draft lottery odds.

While winning a championship is always the ultimate goal, the position the Pacers find themselves in this offseason—after a season riddled with injuries—gives them a unique opportunity to build their roster in multiple ways.

If the ping-pong balls fall in their favor, there’s a legitimate chance Indiana could walk away with the No. 1 overall pick and select one of the best prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. They could also land anywhere from No. 2 to No. 4 and still come away with a talented young player who could help keep this franchise at the top of the Eastern Conference for years to come.

That’s the most likely outcome if Indiana retains its pick…but there’s a major “what if” worth exploring.

What if the Pacers traded their top-four pick to help this team win right now during the two-year championship window the front office believes in?

There are a lot of complications involved in making a splashy move like that, so let’s break it down.

Identifying the Targets

First and foremost, you have to determine which players are worth trading a top-four pick for. I asked fans on X who they would target if the Pacers moved the pick, and the names that came up were:

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, Trey Murphy III, Evan Mobley, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Durant, Bam Adebayo, and Kawhi Leonard.

That’s an elite list—but acquiring any of those players comes with serious complications.

The Financial Reality

siakam — Jan 12, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard (2) celebrates with forward Jarace Walker (5) and forward Pascal Siakam (43) after a basket during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Indiana is projected to be over the luxury tax next season, and adding a top-four pick would push them into the first apron.

Operating as a first-apron team makes trades significantly more difficult—though not impossible. To acquire a superstar, Indiana would need to match salaries, which likely means including the pick plus at least three core players.

For example, Giannis is set to make roughly $58 million next season. To match that, the Pacers would need to include Pascal Siakam ($48.9M), plus another rotation player like Jarace Walker or T.J. McConnell, along with the pick. That’s three core pieces for one player—even one of the best in the world.

And history has shown us that even the best players can’t win alone.

The Risk of Gutting the Core

Mar 15, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Indiana Pacers center Ivica Zubac (40) looks for a shot against Milwaukee Bucks center Myles Turner (3) in the first quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Indiana still has most of the core that made a Finals run, outside of Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin. They addressed their center need by trading for Ivica Zubac, but they still lack a reliable bench scorer.

So yes—making a win-now move makes sense. The Pacers are in a rare championship window.

But is it worth sacrificing multiple core pieces and disrupting chemistry for a headline move?

No chance.

If the Pacers have to gut both their roster and their future, the trade simply isn’t worth it. This team already has enough talent to get back to the NBA Finals—assuming Tyrese Haliburton returns fully healthy.

A More Realistic Trade Path?

Flagg Pacers — Oct 29, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Jarace Walker (5) moves the ball past Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) during the second quarter at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

There is, however, a more cost-effective path.

Indiana could explore trading the pick for a player still on a rookie-scale contract, someone whose salary closely aligns with the value of a top-four selection.

Some fans floated names like Cooper Flagg, Victor Wembanyama, and Kon Knueppel. Of course, the Pacers would make those deals, but the opposing teams wouldn’t.

Wembanyama is arguably the most untouchable player in the league. Dallas wouldn’t risk trading another franchise cornerstone so soon. And Charlotte isn’t moving on from a young wing who was neck-and-neck with Flagg in the Rookie of the Year race.

Realistically, Wembanyama and Flagg are the only players worth trading the No. 1 pick for—and neither is attainable.

If Indiana landed picks No. 2 through No. 4, there could be discussions around players like Knueppel, Stephon Castle, or Dylan Harper—but again, teams like San Antonio and Charlotte aren’t likely to disrupt their cores.

Fringe Options

Apr 28, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Vj Edgecombe (77) returns up court against the Boston Celtics in the second half during game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images | David Butler II-Imagn Images

Other potential targets could include Ace Bailey (Jazz), Cason Wallace (Thunder), and VJ Edgecombe (76ers).

Utah might be open to a deal. Oklahoma City would likely hesitate due to its belief in Wallace, and Philadelphia appears committed to its Maxey–Edgecombe pairing.

Trading a top-four pick for Bailey would be a mistake. You can at least make a case for Edgecombe or Wallace, given flashes of playoff performance—but even then, the sample size is limited.

And ultimately, I still wouldn’t make any of these moves.

The Bigger Picture

Jan 24, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) reacts during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

If the Pacers are determined to maximize the next two seasons, a win-now move could actually do more harm than good. It risks undoing what they’ve already built—and frankly, it feels unnecessary.

Trey Murphy III is a name often linked to Indiana, but even then, moving a top-four pick for him doesn’t feel justified.

This is a rare opportunity for the Pacers, and trading this pick could become one of the most costly decisions in franchise history.

Prospects like Dybantsa, Peterson, Wilson, or Boozer would help balance the roster and strengthen both the present and the future.

A smaller move around the edges makes sense. Moving a highly coveted top-four pick does not.

Reading the Front Office’s Intentions

Jan 30, 2023; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard speaks during an Indiana Pacers press conference to announce the contract extension of center Miles Turner at Gainsbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

If Indiana truly planned to trade this pick, they likely wouldn’t have placed protections on it in the deal with the Clippers.

They could have acquired Zubac by simply sending an unprotected 2026 pick—but they didn’t.

That tells you everything.

Yes, you’ll hear rumblings that “trading the pick is on the table”—and that’s fair. Good front offices explore every avenue to improve.

But based on their midseason moves, it’s clear the Pacers value this draft class and would be thrilled to add a top-four talent to their core.

Final Verdict

caleb — Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) with the ball as Duke Blue Devils forward Cameron Boozer (12) defends in the first half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Trading a top-four pick to improve title odds in the next two years would be incredibly difficult without gutting the roster. It would also jeopardize the team’s long-term future and place enormous pressure on the incoming star.

Indiana doesn’t want to repeat what happened when the Knicks traded for Mikal Bridges—a good player, but one now viewed as a significant overpay.

Under Kevin Pritchard and Chad Buchanan, the Pacers have often been better at making trades than drafting. But in this case, the smarter move is clear.

Keep the pick. Select the right player. And trust that this rare opportunity can elevate both the present and the future, without the unnecessary risk.

Because ultimately, trading the pick comes with far too many downsides.

You can follow me on X @AlexGoldenNBA and listen to my daily Indiana Pacers podcast, Setting The Pace, wherever you get your podcasts.

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