Assessing Jeremiah Fears' Ceiling: How Does His Rookie Season Compare to Star Guards?

Where does Jeremiah Fears' first season fit among rookie campaigns of star guards?

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Jeremiah Fears is finishing out his rookie season strong. Despite a disappointing campaign for the New Orleans Pelicans, the talented rookie has hit his stride in recent weeks. His form culminated with the performance of the season on Tuesday when he had 40 points, five rebounds, and six assists against the Jazz to become the youngest Pelican ever to hit those marks in a game.

The 19-year-old point guard has shown a ton of flashes throughout the season despite being an afterthought behind Derik Queen for much of the year. Fears' performance reached new heights after James Borrego moved him to the bench in late January. Since the All-Star break, Fears is averaging 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 26.3% usage rate and 54.9% True Shooting, while his turnover rate has been steadily going down.

As an elite ball-handler and playmaker, Fears has the ability to create good looks for himself and others. He can get to the rim at will, rise up in midrange and floater range for self-created shots, or run the pick-and-roll to consistently find the open man. With his speed and ball-handling, he is a force in transition. But what actually is his ceiling as a player? How does he compare to other lead guards who have a similar physical profile and play style?

Let's focus on four guards of the last two decades who are most reminiscent of Fears, both physically and stylistically: Kyrie Irving, Darius Garland, De'Aaron Fox, and Monta Ellis. How did they do in their rookie seasons compared to Fears?

	MPG	Usage %	TS%	Points/G	Assists/G	TO/G
Jeremiah Fears	25.2	25.0	52.1	13.4	3.3	2.2
Kyrie Irving	30.5	28.7	56.6	18.5	5.4	3.1
Darius Garland	30.9	20.7	49.8	12.3	3.9	2.6
De'Aaron Fox	27.8	23.4	47.8	11.6	4.4	2.4
Monta Ellis	18.1	20.2	48.6	6.8	1.6	1.2

Jeremiah Fears Compares Favorably to Similar All-Star Guards

Looking at their statistical profiles, it's not hard to see that Fears compares favorably to multiple All-Star guards. Despite having a higher usage rate than both Garland and Fox, for example, Fears was able to be significantly more efficient as a scorer. Kyrie Irving, on the other hand, stands out in this group as someone who produced at an elite level as a rookie, both in terms of volume and efficiency.

The biggest question for Fears in the NBA was his outside shot. So far, however, one can argue that he has shot the ball better than expected. He is at 34.2% from downtown for the season on 3.6 attempts per game. While both of these numbers need to be higher for him to be an elite offensive player, Fox shot 30.7% from three as a rookie, and Garland was at 35.5%. Considering that Garland was able to make himself into one of the best shooters of his position and Fox became a quality mid-range shooter, Fears is in a great place at the end of his rookie season.

There are different strengths and weaknesses for each of these guards. Garland is more of a pick-and-roll master in the halfcourt, while Fox is a speedy transition force who does most of his halfcourt damage in the midrange. Kyrie Irving is one of the best iso scorers and shooters the league has ever seen. Monta Ellis is more of a dynamic scorer and less of a playmaker compared to the rest of the group.

Defensively, they are mostly all liabilities. Irving has hit the highest level there, and Fox has had his moments, but it's hard to say that any of them were plus defenders throughout their careers. Where Fears will fit on that end of the floor remains to be seen, but there are obvious physical and strength concerns. Yet, he is a very active defender who makes help plays, so there is a real chance he is better than at least half of his counterparts mentioned here.

Plus, Fears was younger than all of these players when he made his NBA debut. Fears doesn't turn 20 until October and was one of the youngest players in the league this season. Comparing favorably to star guards at a younger age should certainly instill more hope in Pelicans fans.

Lead guards take longer than other positions to acclimate to the NBA. The speed, intensity, and physicality of the league can understandably take more time to get used to for the smallest players on the court. How much of a step Fears has taken throughout the season is an excellent sign for his future. Putting his rookie campaign into perspective should be more of a reason to be excited about his future.