Dejounte Murray's Regression to the Mean Complicates Pelicans' Plans

When Dejounte Murray returned from his 13-month absence at the end of February, Pelicans fans rejoiced. They were finally going to get competent veteran play out of the point guard spot, which in turn would stabilize their offense while giving them another physical defender on the other end. Immediately upon his return, Murray provided just that and more. In fact, he exceeded all reasonable expectations from a player who hasn't seen NBA action in over a year following one of the most devastating injuries.

Murray's performance also coincided with the Pelicans' winning streak. New Orleans went 9-4 in the 13 games following Murray's return to action. They looked like a more competitive team, capable of putting up a fight against the best teams in the league while defeating bad teams.

Over the last two weeks, however, things have taken a downturn. Murray started struggling, which led to the Pelicans losing seven in a row.

Dejounte Murray's Recent Struggles Create Fascinating Offseason Conundrum

In his first nine games this season, Murray was averaging 19.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.7 steals in 27.4 minutes per game on 55.1/36.4/82.9 shooting splits. The Pelicans won his minutes by an average of 7.1 points in that span.

The five games since then, however, have been a disaster. Murray averaged 11.8 points and 7.2 assists in 28.6 minutes per game while shooting 35.9% from the field and 16.7% from three in these games, and the Pelicans lost his minutes by an average of 8.8 points.

This was not unexpected. Murray's performance immediately upon return was unsustainable, and he is finally regressing to the mean. His numbers across the board after 14 games now more closely resemble his career averages. If anything, one can expect his efficiency to go further down.

Murray currently has a career-high 58% True Shooting this season. This is largely because he is shooting 56% on his two-point shots that are not at the rim. This is not only 8 percentage points higher than he has ever shot on those shots for a season, but it would also be one of the highest marks for any backcourt player in the league.

It's important to note that this is all a part of the recovery process. Every player goes through similar struggles after returning from a serious injury. It shouldn't take away from how good Murray looks physically and athletically.

At the same time, the Pelicans have to keep this in mind in the offseason. As the sample grows, Murray's production will likely settle around his career averages at best. The Pels have to decide whether that is a player they want to pay $32.7 million next season and keep around going forward. Whether the final four games of the season change the Pelicans' mind towards one direction or another remains to be seen.