Raptors Virtually Locked Into Lottery Spot Following Victory Over Nets

Now it’s up to the lottery gods.

This was always how the season was going to end for the Toronto Raptors. No matter how the past few months played out, their future was always going to hinge on a few bouncing ping pong balls in the draft lottery machine.

Now, the odds are essentially set.

Wednesday’s 116–86 win over the Brooklyn Nets, combined with a Philadelphia 76ers loss to the Washington Wizards, has virtually locked Toronto into the No. 7 spot in the lottery standings.

Is it ideal? Not exactly.

Three months ago, the Raptors had the league’s second-worst record. As recently as earlier this month, they sat fifth from the bottom. But a pair of wins over Orlando gave them a late-season boost at exactly the wrong time.

Here’s how the math shakes out: with the No. 7 lottery slot, Toronto has a 7.5% chance at landing the No. 1 pick and the rights to Cooper Flagg, the Duke phenom widely projected as one of the top prospects in years. The Raptors also have a 31.9% chance at a top-four selection, where Rutgers teammates Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, along with Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe, are expected to headline the next tier.

Had the Raptors lost Wednesday, they could have improved their odds. A slide to sixth would have bumped their chances at the top pick to 9% and their top-four odds to 37.2%. Dropping to fifth would have meant a 10.5% shot at No. 1 and a 42.1% chance at the top four.

Instead, the most likely outcome is a pick between No. 7 and No. 9. Barring any movement over the next few weeks, Toronto will not be eligible for the fifth or sixth pick and has about a two-thirds chance of landing squarely in that mid-lottery range.

If there is a silver lining, it is this: even at their lowest, the Raptors are a step above the league’s worst teams. Even with Scottie Barnes and a rotating cast of characters, Toronto has remained more competitive than the other teams at the bottom. That is a small, but hopeful sign of progress.

Orlando Robinson showed his value as a depth center with 23 points and 12 rebounds in 24 minutes. Jonathan Mogbo had one of his best games in a while, finishing with 16 points on 5-for-10 shooting.

More encouraging is what Barnes continues to show as a two-way player. His shot still needs work, but he is finding ways to impact games through his defense and playmaking. If his teammates had hit more shots Wednesday, his stat line would have looked better. He finished with 15 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in 24 minutes.

The hope is next year will be better.

Brandon Ingram is expected to add some much-needed shot-making, and the incoming first-round pick should give Toronto additional depth. The only question now is where that pick will land, and who will be heading to Toronto.

Up Next: Charlotte Hornets

The Raptors will return home Friday night to play host to LaMelo Ball and the Charlotte Hornets at 7:30 p.m. ET.