Houston Needs Jalen Green to Emerge

The Houston Rockets are in a strong position to vault themselves into championship contention. Their foundation starts with defense and effort, and they have several players that fit into that identity. They have a do-it-all player with near all-star level performance, and a cast of players that fill in and contribute greatly to winning.

The one thing the Rockets need before they truly reach contender status is a star alpha scorer.

For as good as Alperen Şengün is, he’s not necessarily got the skill set to become a top scorer in the league. Consistent? Yes. The team’s best player? Absolutely.

But the level of scoring necessary for a championship is the likes of Jayson Tatum, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic. Alpi has the offensive creativity to potentially become a lead scorer in his career. But he currently doesn’t have the high-volume shooting ability that other alpha scorers in the league have.

Enter Jalen Green, the player the Rockets envisioned taking that position on the team. So far, he hasn’t conveyed the pre-draft potential Houston saw when they took him as the second overall draft pick in 2021.

That’s a big problem for a team that’s this close to playing important basketball at the end of the season.

Green just got a contract extension this past offseason. That was in part a testament to the belief Houston has in its dynamic guard. It’s also indicative of their understanding that he may never reach the heights they hoped he would.

Green has a contract that would play well in trade conversations if the team ever needed to pull the trigger to bring an alpha-level scorer to the team.

Green’s job this season is to prove to the front office that he can be the player they need. So far, it’s been mixed results this season for the 4th year player.

There have been some high marks this season, averaging over 28 points in his first five games. Since then, his scoring average has fallen significantly to just over 16 points per game, and he’s had more single-digit scoring games than 30-point games. He has only five games over 20 points in the same period.

That’s not the type of play that will translate to offensive success in the postseason. While Green’s ceiling is still high, the floor is somewhat hard to stomach. It also makes it hard to believe that the highs are sustainable.

He lacks a consistent formula for scoring. Players learn what their most efficient shot diet is in about the time Green has been in the league. From that point, those players continue to add skills that allow them to create opportunities to take their most efficient shots.

Green’s shot diet isn’t always the best, and his jump shot isn’t consistent enough to justify some of the difficult mid-range and three-point attempts he takes. He is sitting at the worst percentages of his career from the field and from deep. Less than 40% field goal percentage and a 32% 3-point percentage is not evidence of an elite alpha scorer.

While he still leads the team in scoring at 19 points per game, the Rockets still expect much more from who they hope will become the next high-level scoring guard in the NBA. If Green isn’t that, the Rockets will likely expect to move on to a player who can provide them the lead scoring that championship-level teams require.

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