Rockets’ Last Month of the Regular Season Will Be the Most Pivotal

The last month of the regular season could totally swing Houston's playoff placement in such a tight Western Conference race.

Mar 10, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets guard Amen Thompson (1) and guard Reed Sheppard (15) celebrate after a play during the fourth quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets picked up a much-needed 113-99 win over the Toronto Raptors, moving them to a 3-2 March record and 40-24 on the season. As much as they have struggled many times this year, specifically on offense, they're still the third seed in the Western Conference.

Houston's season has mostly been about navigating how it can supplement Kevin Durant's scoring talents. The 37-year-old has certainly provided a new dimension to the offense, but the Rockets have found themselves relying on that too much, especially without a true point guard due to Fred VanVleet's ACL injury.

The team certainly has the pieces to contend for a championship. Injuries have slightly marred that distinction, but for the most part, this is a rotation many teams would like to avoid in the playoffs. But Houston needs first to establish its playoff seed with 18 games to go in the regular season.

This next month or so of basketball is the most pivotal stretch of the Rockets' season. They're just a half-game ahead of both the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, and sit just 2.5 games up from the Play-In Tournament's seventh seed.

We knew this would be the case with the West because of how last season played out. Houston was fortunate enough to close out the regular season as the second seed, but the third and seventh seeds were separated by just two games. That final slate before the postseason had major playoff implications that ended up adding and taking away basketball for many teams.

The Rockets have had multiple rough patches earlier this year. From early to mid-December, they went 4-6. From early to mid-January, they went 3-5. They're 20-14 in 2026, but is staying slightly above .500 going to be enough to secure home-court advantage in the playoffs? Probably not.

Another major factor is avoiding certain teams for as long as possible. The Oklahoma City Thunder have looked more vulnerable after starting 24-1, but they're still 51-15. If the Rockets get to the second round, would they rather face them or the San Antonio Spurs, who most recently routed them 145-120 on Sunday?

These are the questions that will be answered over the next month or so. With season-ending injuries to VanVleet and Steven Adams, Houston will have a weaker rotation than what we expected at the start of the NBA year. But the team can still make some noise in year one of the Durant experiment.