Can the Rockets Realistically Stay the Third Seed in the West?

With just over a month left in the regular season, the Houston Rockets have a chance to be one of the top seeds in the Western Conference. The Rockets are currently 38-22 and third in the West, just ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves in terms of win percentage.

Houston is slightly ahead of where it was last year at this time, and while the Rockets have Kevin Durant on the team, the injuries and struggles on offense at times make their current mark impressive. The Rockets are the sixth best team in the NBA according to record, and the opportunity to finish top three in the West is right in front of them.

The standings from third to sixth in the West are extremely tight, and the Rockets do not have much room for error if they are to stay in third. The Denver Nuggets are just a game back at 38-24 and followed by the Los Angeles Lakers at 37-24 in sixth.

Schedule Favors Rockets

Mar 2, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) shoots the ball over Washington Wizards forward Kyshawn George (18) in the first half at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The key aspect to look at now is the remaining strength of the schedule for these teams. The Rockets are currently 19th in strength of schedule with an opponent win percentage of .497, which is favorable. Houston has 14 remaining games at home compared to nine on the road. The five back-to-backs are among the highest in the league, however.

This is the sixth weakest schedule in the Western Conference, but they have nine games remaining against the top eight teams in the West. That includes two critical games each against the Lakers and Timberwolves. Those four games would likely decide the head-to-head with the two teams right behind the Rockets.

The answer for whether the Rockets can realistically hold onto the third seed is yes. While the Rockets’ strength of schedule is manageable, the teams they are competing with for that spot don’t have a favorable schedule ahead.

The Timberwolves have the third toughest schedule remaining, with 14 of their 22 remaining games against teams with winning records. Besides two against the Rockets, Minnesota also has to face the best team in the East in the Detroit Pistons twice. The T-Wolves also have to take on the Thunder, Celtics, and Lakers. They also have 12 road games compared to 10 at home.

The Nuggets currently have the head-to-head over the Rockets and have been right next to them in the standings the entire season. Denver has the toughest remaining schedule according to win percentage with 11 games against top eight teams in the West.

This gives the Rockets a good chance to take advantage of their schedule. The Lakers also arguably have the toughest stretch of games left with two against the Nuggets and Thunder. They also face the Pistons on the road and Cavs and Knicks at home.

Given how all these three teams face each other, that will help the Rockets out a lot as well. While the Rockets may not catch the San Antonio Spurs who are five games ahead and don’t face a particularly daunting stretch, the Thunder will have to play well to maintain their top spot in the West.

The key games for the Rockets are obviously the two in a row against the Lakers at home, while playing the Timberwolves once on the road and once at home. Besides that, the Rockets play the Knicks at home and face the Suns and Nuggets on the road once. The home game against the Raptors coming up will also be competitive.

Houston has 14 games at home, and just nine on the road. The Rockets have been one of the best home teams in the league with a 20-7 record at Toyota Center. If Houston can take care of business at home, it will bode well for their chances to stay in the top three.