The Rockets' Hopes Lean On Their Shot Making, Not Playmaking

Much has been said about Houston's lack of a true point guard this season and how injuries may have stifled their contention chances this year, but Houston's biggest issue is its shot making, not its shot creation.

Mar 10, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. (10) celebrates after scoring a basket during the fourth quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Houston Rockets have tried to mitigate the loss of Fred VanVleet all season. His ability to limit turnovers and organize the offense was invaluable for last year's Rockets, and it was always expected the team would struggle a bit once he went down. An injury to Steven Adams later limited Houston's strategy to snatch extra offensive possessions with its rebounding.

With the lack of playmaking, paired with a slower rate of offensive rebounding, the Rockets' offense has at times looked incapable of competiing at a high level. However, the Rockets have been able to create open shots despite the lack of a lead playmaker. Their ability to hit shots is what has limited their performance this season.

Even if VanVleet were to play, he would still need players like Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Dorian Finney-Smith to knock down their open jumpers.

These players have had fluctuating success from deep this season, with Eason having the best shooting year out of the trio. Finney-Smith often has struggled to contribute offensively, and there may be no one on the team as inconsistent as Smith Jr.

While shots for Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün in the paint may come easier with a lead guard, the Rockets wouldn't be able to win against the league's best with just paint points. Eventually, their outside shooters would need to make their shots in big moments.

Kevin Durant is the team's best shot maker, and while he may have been able to get more opportunities with a guard like VanVleet getting him the ball, a lead guard wouldn't stop the intense deny-ball defense elite teams have played against Durant.

When Durant can create space for himself, and when the Rockets' shooters are knocking down their shots at even an average rate, the Rockets are a difficult team to guard and are capable of competing against nearly any other team in the NBA.

However, it feels like a rarity to get quality shooting performances from each of their shooters against the league's best teams.

Whether it's elite defense or an inability to hit shots consistently, their shot making has been the most glaring weakness against top tier competition. Reed Sheppard has done a solid job filling in a role for lead guard, even against top teams.

It's easy to say that they can't compete without a lead guard, but the conversation would likely be different if the players pegged as shooters on the team could consistently knock down their open opportunities that present themselves even against the league's best.