Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 11

Two Western Conference contenders face off on national television on Wednesday night in Denver.

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are looking to snap a two-game skid when they host Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets, who are coming off a win against the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday.

Houston is just 5-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, so this could be a favorable spot for the Nuggets. Denver has Aaron Gordon back in the lineup, but it remains without Peyton Watson on Wednesday.

The Nuggets have tumbled down the Western Conference standings with recent losses to New York and Oklahoma City, and they’re 1.5 games back of Houston with 17 to play. The Rockets remain behind Denver in the latest odds to win the Finals, but the Western Conference is loaded with teams that want to challenge OKC.

Oddsmakers have set Nuggets as a favorite in this game, and I have a few picks – including a player prop – for bettors to consider on March 11.

Rockets vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Rockets +6.5 (-118)
Nuggets -6.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Rockets: +205
Nuggets: -250

Total

230.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Rockets vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Rockets record: 40-24
Nuggets record: 39-26

Rockets vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Rockets Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Nuggets Injury Report

Jamal Murray – probable
Peyton Watson – out
Cameron Johnson – probable
DaRon Holmes II – out
KJ Simpson – out
Curtis Jones – out

Rockets vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jamal Murray OVER 21.5 Points (-125)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I broke down why Murray is a great prop target at this number:

This season, Murray has scored 26, 35 and 16 points in his three meetings with Houston, although the 35-point game did come in an overtime win.

Still, Murray is having the best season of his NBA career, averaging 25.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 42.7 percent from beyond the arc.

The Nuggets star shot just 9-for-23 from the field on Monday against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he played nearly 37 minutes, showing that his ankle injury isn’t going to really hamper him.

Houston is allowing the third-fewest points per game to opposing point guards, but I have a hard time fading Murray at this number when he’s taking a career-high 18.4 shots per game and shooting the ball incredibly well from both the field and from 3.

Rockets vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

I’m betting on this matchup from multiple angles, as I also made a pick in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – for Houston to cover:

Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA this season as a road underdog, going 6-1 against the spread, and it’s coming off a nice win over Toronto on Tuesday.

The Rockets are just 5-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’m betting on them as sizable underdogs against this Denver team.

The Nuggets are still without Peyton Watson, and they’re just four games over .500 at home, including a shaky 10-12 against the spread record as home favorites.

Over their last 10 games, the Nuggets 15th in net rating, 13th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating. The No. 1 offense in the league for basically the entire season, Denver is going to struggle when it falls back into the middle of the pack on that end of the floor.

Meanwhile, the Rockets are sixth in the league in defensive rating this season and have been decent over their last 10 games (11th in net rating at +4.6).

Both of Denver’s wins over Houston this season came by just three points, including one that was in overtime. I think that makes the Rockets a must bet at this number on Wednesday.

Pick: Rockets +6.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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