When the Rockets Take More of These Shots Than the Opponent They Usually Win

The Houston Rockets are coming off a nail-biter victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. After leading most of the game, the Rockets struggled to score in the fourth quarter and had too many defensive lapses.

As the fourth quarter went along and the game entered the final minutes, it seemed the Rockets were about to suffer another heartbreak and fourth-quarter collapse. That is when Kevin Durant of the visiting team proved again why he is one of the best players of all time.

With the Rockets down one point with under ten seconds left, Durant rose up and made his patented mid-range jumper over tight defense to put the Rockets ahead for good. The Pelicans had a shot at the buzzer from 3-point range to win it, but it bounced off the rim, and the Rockets survived in their first game of a five-game homestand.

One play that may be overlooked because of Kevin Durant’s greatness was the 3-pointer by Jabari Smith in the corner late in the game. With the Rockets fading fast and the game slipping away, Amen Thompson drove to the basket and, before losing the ball, passed it out to Jabari Smith, who nailed a contested 3-pointer over Zion Williamson.

It was one of the Rockets 41 3-point attempts in the game, which is remarkable in itself this season, considering the Rockets lack of attempts per game. However, when the Rockets take more 3-pointers than their opponents, it usually results in a win, as it did on Friday night.

When the Rockets Take More 3-Pointers Than Their Opponents, They Win More Times Than Not

Throughout the season, the Rockets have been, as last season, one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA and a top-ten, sometimes top-five, defense. Those two categories have kept the Rockets afloat for most of the season.

Their shooting has been a different matter, as the Rockets have been up and down with shooting percentages this season. The Rockets started the season surprising the entire league, leading the league in 3-point shooting and offensive rating for the first few weeks.

Since then, they have crashed back to earth, ranking in the bottom 10 in both categories since the calendar flipped to 2026. One area of offense where they have been consistent all season is their lack of 3-point attempts, as they have ranked 29th or 30th in 3-point attempts.

In fact, they have only taken 40 or more shots from beyond the arc only seven times this season. That is compared to 22 times last season, so unless the Rockets shoot 40 or more 3-pointers in 15 of the last 16 games, they will not equal last season's mark, and they are more than likely to finish way behind last season.

One of those seven times did happen in Friday’s win as the Rockets went 14-41 from downtown. It is significant because when the Rockets attempt more 3-pointers than their opponent, they are 19-8 on the season. That is a 70 percent win percentage and shows that when the Rockets attempt more 3-pointers and defend the 3-point line, they usually win.

That statistic doesn't even include making more 3-pointers; it is just attempts. When the Rockets spread the floor and don't rely solely on offensive rebounds and putbacks, they put pressure on the defense and force them to guard the entire court.

The Rockets will never be a high-volume 3-point team, as their roster isn't built for that kind of volume, but if they can incorporate more attempts from deep, it will go a long way toward them closing the season out strong.