Will the Rockets Win an NBA Championship By 2029?

For Houston to cash in, at least one other player must take another step

Apr 29, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (28) shoots against Los Angeles Lakers center Deandre Ayton (5) during the second half in game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The identity of an NBA team can change drastically in three years. The Houston Rockets went from missing the playoffs with a young core in 2023 to a 50+ win season with Kevin Durant leading the charge in 2026.

Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes assembled a power ranking of how likely each NBA franchise is to succeed over a three-year window. Hughes listed the Rockets at No. 12, suggesting that Houston will be the sixth-strongest Western Conference team throughout the later part of the decade.

“The Rockets are about as dangerous as a team can be without a clear ‘best on a title-winner’ player. Sengun has made back-to-back All-Star games and probably comes closest, but he needs to take another step or two before Houston will have the necessary top option to tangle with Wembanyama and SGA out west.”

Nov 1, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson (1) and center Alperen Sengun (28) react during the second half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A Future Franchise Star

The Rockets are positioned behind the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs in Bleacher Report’s power rankings, all of which have a definitive franchise player in his prime.

In comparison, Kevin Durant’s 26.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per-game averages over 78 games served as Houston’s only All-NBA Team representation. While the 37-year-old is still one of the top players in the league, it is harder to forecast if and where he will be playing three years from now.

For this reason, two-time All-Star Alperen Sengun is expected to carry the torch as Houston’s next franchise player. Compared to the likes of Nikola Jokic, the 24-year-old Sengun averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists over 72 games last season.

The six-foot-eleven center is best known for his playmaking, facilitating, and interior force. His three-point game is an area for improvement, though new Rockets assistant coach Chip Engelland could help him improve his shooting mechanics.

Behind Sengun, Amen Thompson is developing into a formidable teammate. In addition to reaching a new career-high in scoring, the 23-year-old finished in the top 10 in Defensive Player of the Year voting for a second consecutive year.

Based on the uncertainty surrounding Durant, along with the strides in development from Sengun and Thompson, Houston’s front office should be operating with a win-now mindset. For that reason, it is reasonable to expect the Rockets to be a frequent playoff qualifier over the next three years. 

It is harder to predict Houston’s specific title odds for the following seasons, as the league has shake-ups each year, but the franchise will likely remain in the conversation. Even after Durant’s eventual departure, the Rockets have rebuilt themselves strongly enough to remain competitive in the long term.