After Harden Trade, Spurs Should Ask Clippers For John Collins

The Spurs could really use a versatile, floor-spacing frontcourt player at the NBA trade deadline, and after the Clippers dealt James Harden, now is the perfect time to finally bring John Collins to San Antonio.

Collins has been a valuable piece on the court for Los Angeles, helping them turn things around after an awful start to the year. The Clippers had won 16 games in 20 tries and probably would have just rode things out, but on Monday night shocking news broke that Harden wanted out. On Tuesday night, Los Angeles traded the 11-time All-Star to Cleveland for Darius Garland and a second-round pick.

Harden's unexpected departure deals a blow to any hopes this team had of making noise in the playoffs, and LA's front office may now be more open to reducing their tax bill or eliminating it entirely. That makes Collins a prime candidate to be moved. He's in the final year of his contract making $26,580,000.

Part of the reason Harden didn't want to stick around in Los Angeles despite their recent success is that the Clippers are reportedly prioritizing keeping their books clear of long-term salary starting in 2027.

All signs indicate that San Antonio has a similar aversion to making any long-term commitments, but they have multiple expiring salaries that they could package with picks to make an upgrade for the stretch run of the season and the playoffs.

Jeremy Sochan is reportedly on his way out, and Kelly Olynyk's expiring contract could be important to match salaries in any trade. It seems unlikely San Antonio would deal Harrison Barnes, but he's on the largest expiring contract of any Spur at $19 million. All of those guys are frontcourt players, so if the Spurs use them to make a consolidation deal it would make sense to bring back an upgrade at the 4.

Enter John Collins, who people have talked about as a potential Spur for years. It's me, I'm people. In 2021 as Collins approached free agency seeking a max deal, I wrote about 5,000 words about how he'd pair nicely with playmakers like Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Here are some of those words:

"Is John Collins the perfect basketball player, the one you would start your team with and build around? Nope. But is he the perfect ingredient to toss into what the Spurs already have cooking to bring out the best of the other flavors? Without a doubt, he fits the bill. You wouldn’t sautee some garlic and onions to eat by itself, but add that to any savory dish and it takes it to another level. And like onions, Collins has layers to his game."

Once again, Collins fits seamlessly with what the Spurs already have cooking. The 28-year-old is still a ferocious lob threat, and he's shooting a career-best 43% from 3 on 3.4 attempts per game. This season he's averaging 13.5 points and 5 rebounds per game, and the previous season in Utah he was at 19 and 8.

Collins remains at his best as a finisher on offense, but he's gotten craftier with the ball in his hands over the years. He can complement both Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and he can play some stretch-5 minutes in a pinch. At 6-foot-9 with long arms and active hands he has the tools to be a solid, switchable defender, and the Spurs are great on that end but could use some size on the wing.

If the Clippers are indeed looking to duck the tax, they'd need to cut $7,167,391 in salary and Collins will be a necessary casualty. The Spurs could offer them a few options to do that and give them serviceable forwards on expiring deals, along with draft compensation.

The Spurs could send one or more of the 16 second-round draft picks at their disposal, including Los Angeles' second in 2029. If San Antonio sent Sochan and Olynyk for Collins, the Clippers would shed $6,038,647 in salary and get much closer to the tax line at $187,895,000. This year, LA has extra motivation to do that.

"Repeater" teams get charged at a higher rate if they've payed the tax in three of the four previous seasons. Los Angeles had a top-four tax bill for four seasons in a row before last year, when they made very sure to sneak under the line by $93,546. If they can get under the tax again this season, the Clippers reset the repeater clock and would be safe for at least the next three seasons.

Throwing former Spur Chris Paul in the deal would get LA all the way under, as would trading Collins for Harrison Barnes and no other players. That seems unlikely, however, as the Spurs have a logical upper limit for the difference in salary that they'd be willing to take on.

Given the importance of staying out of the repeater tax, the Spurs probably won't want to start their own clock this season. If they sent out Sochan and Olynyk and took on that additional $6,038,647 to bring in Collins, it would bring their payroll to $188,273,482 and put them $378,482 over the line. They'd have to make another move to avoid starting their own repeater clock, but would be able to do it.