Can Victor Wembanyama Realistically Win MVP? Inside Spurs Star's Late Season Chase

Trotting to the locker room after his eighth straight win — the third such instance of his third NBA season — Victor Wembanyama couldn't help but notice the fanfare.

"MVP" chants showered his worn figure. Scars, which he seldom leaves games without, marked the spots where he took the worst of it: if you asked him, they were worth it. Away from home on March 28, the San Antonio Spurs took Milwaukee.

Still, the chants persisted. A welcome reminder of Wembanyama's impact.

"I like it," the 22-year-old Frenchman said at home in December, several months before his MVP campaign truly took off. "I like it. It's great support."

Mar 5, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward forward Victor Wembanyama (1) shoots a free throw during the first half against the Detroit Pistons at Frost Bank Center. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Wembanyama knew his professional trajectory included a slew of hardware. His defensive prowess was bound to net him numerous Defensive Player of the Year nods, and if his offense came even close to such projection, likely a few MVP trophies, as well.

His output this season has met that mark. Overdue as it may feel after a development-heavy rookie season that yielded 22 wins and a sophomore season cut short by deep vein thrombosis, Wembanyama doesn't want to deal with hypotheticals.

He gave three strong reasons as to why his present-day self deserves MVP.

"Defense is 50 percent of the game," Wembanyama argued. "That is undervalued so far in the MVP race ... I believe I'm the most impactful player defensively in the league."

His second reason? Slightly pointed.

"We almost swept OKC in the season," he said. "We dominated them three times with their real team and the fourth time (with) more rotation players."

Reason 3 referred to his offensive impact — how it often ventures beyond scoring. Like the other two, it was well merited and clearly articulated. Yet even Wembanyama knew he had to do more than speak on his case to warrant hoisting a new trophy.

"I think right now, it is still reasonable that there is a debate," Wembanyama said. "My goal is to make sure there's no debate ... at the end of the season."

Mar 30, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) is introduced before the game against then Chicago Bulls at Frost Bank Center. | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The odds are stacked against Wembanyama, not because of his own doing, but rather the competition he's facing. In most years prior to Nikola Jokić's ascension — now joined in offensive greatness by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — the figures Wembanyama logs on a nightly basis would have made him a near-unanimous winner.

Instead, Wembanyama's numbers, and more importantly, his willingness to cede offensive responsibilities to other teammates, hampers his case against the likes of Jokić, Gilgeous-Alexander and even Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Dončić, who still has to win an appeal to be considered for end-of-season awards in a career year.

Jokić (27.9 points, 12.8 rebounds, 10.8 assists/game) has Wembanyama (24.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists/game) beat in every statistical category beyond blocks this season. Gilgeous-Alexander (31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists/game) averages fewer rebounds, but, like Jokić, has the Frenchman bested elsewhere, including offensive efficiency.

That's where the debate truly takes form. Wembanyama can call upon his defensive capabilities already as one of the NBA's greatest defenders in history.

With four games to play this season, Wembanyama is on pace for his third straight blocks title in as many years. He's consistently placed top-three in defensive rating among players with at least 50 games played averaging at least 20 minutes per game; his Spurs have jumped to the third-best net rating in the league as a result.

It's stumped, at times, even the greatest of offensive machines.

"Them measuring each other is very interesting," Nuggets coach David Adelman said. "For Nikola, a guy that loves to figure things out, this is the ultimate defensive puzzle."

Speaking for himself, Jokić doubled down.

"I think the first time I played against him, I told you guys he's going to change the league," he said. "He's going to change basketball ... I think he has an opportunity, a chance to be the most unique basketball player to ever play the game."

Jan 3, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama (1) controls the ball as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) guards in the third quarter at Ball Arena. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

While Wembanyama trails his colleagues in offensive measures, that side of his game has never materialized as a weakness. In the 15-game span that followed the Spurs' perfect February, the center averaged 27.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.7 blocks per game on a 64-percent true shooting clip with a plus-269 differential.

San Antonio amassed 26 wins across 28 games while Wembanyama became the youngest player in NBA history to record at least 40 points and 15 rebounds in back-to-back games and the only player to record three games with over 40 points in fewer than 30 minutes. He currently trails only Gilgeous-Alexander in total plus-minus.

"Even though he obviously fills up a box score," Spurs coach Mitch Johnson began, "he leaves his imprints all over the game. It's a byproduct of how we play."

Wembanyama's lack of minutes in certain games this season fell under the same umbrella. After suffering a calf strain in late November — an injury that sidelined the Frenchman for 12 games leading into the Knockout Round of the NBA Cup — San Antonio stuck to a conservative approach with his minutes.

A few games off the bench upon returning to play epitomized Wembanyama's willingness to put team success first, especially as it searched for its first playoff berth since 2019. The result has been, so far, the franchise's first 60-win season since 2017.

It doesn't downplay Wembanyama's desire to win the award.

"I do care deeply about (MVP)," he said. "I think that all the greats ... the best of all time — they have fought and grabbed everything they could grab early on in their career. If I want to make my spot among the greats, I've got to try to not miss any occasion."

Apr 6, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) reacts after dunking ahead of Philadelphia 76ers forwards Justin Edwards (11) and Dominick Barlow (25) during the first half against the Philadelphia 76ers at Frost Bank Center. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Wembanyama doubled down on the success of the team around him at the same time — another obstacle to an award typically perceived individually. Another All-Star in De'Aaron Fox coupled with the dynamic slashing duo of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper makes Wembanyama's job easier on most nights. Yet not easy enough.

For the Spurs' front man to best Gilgeous-Alexander, who is widely seen as the MVP favorite, his team needs to have an edge in the standings. As consistent as Oklahoma City's star has been, even four victories — one without him, Wembanyama would remind you — isn't enough to earn enough votes from a media panel outright.

Johnson, though admittedly skewed, might argue differently.

"I'm very biased," the coach said. "I get to see (Wembanyama) on the practice court. I get to see what he does in the morning. I get to see what he does right after (a) game. So, I understand my opinion, outlook and perspective is very different than almost everyone else."

Jan 15, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs interim coach Mitch Johnson looks on as center Victor Wembanyama (1) shoots free throws before a game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Frost Bank Center. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Almost doesn't include the rest of the Spurs' locker room, who view their teammate as the obvious pick for the award; relative team success sides with them. Finally living up to the expectations set forth by his unique skill set, the Spurs are in unfamiliar waters.

Now dealing with a rib contusion suffered against the Philadelphia 76ers Monday night, Wembanyama needs just one more game of 20 minutes to remain eligible for any end-of-season awards in Year 3, including the Defensive Player of the Year Award with his name already written on it, should he reach the eligibility threshold.

Anything beyond that is bonus. And while Wembanyama's true MVP case likely rests in his team's ability to make an unlikely chase at the Western Conference's No. 1 seed, they'd rather focus on their first-round opponent than more hardware.

But the narrative will keep spinning. Right now, it's leaning toward a repeat winner.

The Spurs, and Wembanyama, are confident that'll refer to the Frenchman in due time.

“Every time he ... gives himself to the moment," Johnson began, "I always feel it's genuine. I just love how authentic he is. When you're that, you end up in a pretty good place."