How Will Spurs Guard Jokic in First Battle With Wemby This Season?

The Spurs' last road game of the season will be the first battle of the year between MVP candidates Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic.

San Antonio and Denver have split a pair of high-scoring affairs earlier in the year, but Wemby was out for both contests. He's healthy for this one, setting up a marquee matchup against the three-time MVP and a Nuggets team that finally has most of their main guys healthy as they've won seven in a row. The Spurs are riding an 11-game winning streak with 27 victories in their last 29 contests, and a win Saturday afternoon would give them 60 for the year.

These teams will play again next Sunday in San Antonio for the 82nd and final game of the regular season, and they both have a lot to play for here in the stretch run. The Nuggets have a chance to take the third seed from the Lakers, who just lost Luka Doncic for the rest of the regular season and maybe more due to a hamstring strain. The Spurs, meanwhile, still have a chance to overtake the defending-champion Thunder for the first-overall seed.

Depending on how the bracket breaks, these teams could face off in the playoffs very soon. These remaining games should be a fascinating chess match where both coaches try some things out, but they may want to keep some tricks up their sleeves for a potential seven-game series in May.

Strength on Strength

The Nuggets are in many measurable ways the best offense in the NBA. They lead the league in points per game and points per 100 possessions this season, they're number one in assist to turnover ratio, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. They're the most accurate three-point shooting team at almost 40% from beyond the arc, though their volume isn't very high.

It's no surprise that Denver dominates on that end of the floor. Jokic and Jamal Murray form the most dangerous pick-and-roll tandem in the world, and they're surrounded by guys who can space the floor and shoot the rock at a high level. It was all on full display in San Antonio a few weeks ago as the Nuggets stormed back to erase a 20-point deficit and steal a 136-131 win.

Notably Wembanyama missed that game, and when he's on the floor the Spurs play historically good defense. According to Cleaning the Glass, opponents score 13.4 points per 100 possessions less when he's out there.

Who Guards Jokic?

Nikola Jokic is still one of the most dominant offensive big men that we've ever seen, and Mitch Johnson and the Spurs threw a lot of different looks at him in the previous game. Luke Kornet started and spent some time as the primary defender, but San Antonio also tried looks where Kornet stayed near the rim and smaller defenders like Keldon Johnson and Stephon Castle tried to prevent Jokic from getting there.

Not many teams would want to send their young point guard out there to check Jokic, but the Spurs have exactly the right personnel and scheme to do it. Castle is strong and fearless, and if he spends a lot of time on the big man it could limit Denver's prolific attack in several ways.

The Thunder showed some of that template in the playoffs last year when they stuck the fiesty Alex Caruso on Jokic. The idea is that Joker plays on the perimeter a lot, and a smaller defender who has a lower center of gravity can aggressively bother the big man's handle with rim protection behind him. If the big guy does manage to back his defender down without turning it over, the alien with the 8-foot wingspan will be waiting to help off the weak-side corner.

Using Castle or another small-but-strong guy as the primary defender on Jokic will also allow that guy to easily switch onto Murray in any pick and rolls or handoffs.

Mitch Johnson, Sean Sweeney and the rest of the Spurs' coaching staff have built the defense around Wembanyama as the low man and anchor as he directs the four players in front of him and lurks near the basket to deter any drives. Wemby has gotten quite a bit stronger over the course of the season, and any play where he's guarding Jokic directly will be a good opportunity to test and show that strength.

WHO:

Denver Nuggets, (49-28, W8)
San Antonio Spurs (59-18, W12)

WHEN:

Saturday, April 4 (Tipoff 2 p.m. Central)

WHERE:

Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

HOW TO WATCH:

Prime Video | FanDuel Sports Network

INJURY REPORT:

DEN:

Spencer Jones (right hamstring strain) - OUT
Peyton Watson (right hamstring strain) - OUT
Zeke Nnaji (left hip sprain) - OUT
Tim Hardaway Jr. (left knee soreness) - PROBABLE

SAS:

David Jones Garcia (ankle) - OUT
Emanuel Miller (two-way) - OUT