Suns-Kings Spread Pick, Betting Trends
The Phoenix Suns play host to the Sacramento Kings on Tuesday night - here’s our data-driven picks for the spread and other betting trends of note:
Game Pick: Suns -5 (1 Unit)
There hasn't been a thorn in the side of the Suns quite like the Kings. Phoenix has lost four of the last five against Sacramento and is 0-5 ATS during that stretch.
Looking back to mid-January, when the Suns overcame a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the Kings, Phoenix was 4.5-point favorites with a 244 total.
Tonight, they will be five-point favorites with a total of 245.5. At that point in the season, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal were playing their eighth game together and the Suns were 14-26 ATS.
Much has changed in the last 13 games. Since then, Phoenix has won 10 of 13 games and is 7-5-1 ATS. Before the previous matchup, the Suns' average net rating was just 2.9 and has quickly risen to 7.5 in the baker's dozen games since.
Meanwhile, Sacramento is sporting a 0.7 net rating in their last 12 games, including three double-digit losses in their last four games.
It could be that the Kings are 3-0 ATS against Phoenix this season, but the line feels low, especially since recent history is on the Suns' side.
via KillerSports.com
Since 2020, favorites who are hosting a team they are 0-3 ATS against that season are 21-8 (72.4%) ATS in the fourth matchup.
The Kings are also a team that plays to extremes, meaning they either win as underdogs or fail to cover. The same can be said for when they are favorites - they either cover with a win or lose outright.
Since 2021, Sacramento is 8-36 against the number when they are underdogs of 6.5 or less and lose the game. When they cover as underdogs, they are 39-18 SU.
However, when they win as favorites, they are 57-14-1 ATS. In the games they fail to cover as favorites, they are 14-42 SU.
The way to bet the Kings is clear. If you think they lose, take the favorite to cover. If you think they could cover the number, take them to win outright.
via KillerSports.com
When Phoenix is back home as 3-point favorites or more, and they and their opponent's last game were on the road, they are 22-7-1 ATS and 27-3 SU, since the 2020 season.
FanDuel (-108), BetMGM (-110), DraftKings (-115)
Other Trends/Notes:
- Since 2020, the over is 17-4 when the Suns are 4-point or more home favorites and their previous game went under by 15+ points
- The over is 24-6 for Phoenix when they are favorites with at least a day of rest, coming off an under as favorites, and the total is 225+, since 2020
