Suns Poised to Advance in NBA Cup - Even if They Fall to Thunder

Tonight's NBA Cup matchup against the defending champs has a lot of implications.

Nov 26, 2025; Sacramento, California, USA; Phoenix Suns guard/forward Dillon Brooks (3) reacts with teammates after coming out of the game during the second quarter of the game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

PHOENIX -- The Phoenix Suns (12-7) have set themselves up well in the standings of NBA Cup group stage play heading into tonight's away matchup against the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder (18-1).

Phoenix is tied with OKC with a 3-0 record and has a plus-35 point differential through the first three games of the NBA Cup after a 112-100 victory over the Sacramento Kings Wednesday.

This means tonight's showdown against the Thunder, who are also 3-0 but with a plus-71 point differential, will determine the winner of West Group A.

“(The matchup against the Thunder) is going to be a great test for us,” Suns star guard Devin Booker said after the Kings win (via The Arizona Republic's Duane Rankin).

“They have it rolling. They're playing some of the best basketball the NBA has ever seen. I'm excited to match up against that. Another (NBA) Cup game. We're looking forward to that. We'll see them Friday.”

Suns Have Great Chance to Advance to Quarterfinals No Matter What

Even with tonight's result determining who will Group C because of head-to-head tiebreaker, the Suns, who are 14.5 point underdogs against the Thunder, still are likely to advance to the NBA Cup quarterfinals whether they win or lose.

Eight total teams will move on to the knockout stage, six spots belonging to group winners and the next two containing one wild card team from each conference.

Going into the OKC game, only one team from West Group A can make it because both the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs lead that group with a 2-1 record each and take on each other tonight, meaning only the group winner will have a 3-1 record, eliminating whoever loses tonight.

As for West Group B, the Los Angeles Lakers (3-0, plus-36 point differential) have already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals because they have wins over the second-place Memphis Grizzles (2-1, plus-9 point differential) and third-place Los Angeles Clippers (2-1, minus-15 point differential).

The Grizzles and Clippers square off tonight, so one of these teams will be tied with the loser of the Suns-Thunder matchup for the wild-card spot with a 3-1 record.

If the Suns lose tonight, the only way they are eliminated is if the Grizzlies and Clippers surpass their point differential total with Memphis seeming much more likely to do so because of their plus-9 point differential compared to Phoenix's plus-35 differential.

OKC has an average margin of victory of plus-16.5 for the entire season, so this could happen especially with Phoenix still without Jalen Green (hamstring), Grayson Allen (quad) and Ryan Dunn (wrist) and the Thunder getting back All-NBA forward Jalen Williams, who had missed the entire season up until this point after undergoing wrist surgery in the offseason.

However, a current 26-point difference in differential between the Grizzlies and Suns still makes it likely for Phoenix to advance.

The one problem for the Suns if they lost and moved on is that they would almost certainly take on the Thunder, who have the best net rating of any team in NBA history, on the road again in the quarterfinals with them way in front currently to be the No. 1 overall seed.

For all these reasons, tonight's game will be the biggest for both the Suns and Thunder so far this season, so Phoenix, who is 9-2 over its last 11 games, will have to come ready to play.