Suns vs Timberwolves Playoff Preview
Taking a look at both sides, breaking down advantages for both sides, and predicting the series.
The Phoenix Suns and their season are in the balance over the next two weeks as they are pitted against the number three-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves - the winner will either play the defending champion Denver Nuggets or LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers next round.
In this preview, we will take a look at both squads from a numerical perspective, breaking down X-factors for both sides, taking a look at the series from the opposing perspective, and making an ultimate series prediction.
Timberwolves: The Skinny
114.6 ORTG (17th in NBA)
108.4 DRTG (1st)
6.3 NET RTG (3rd)
97.79 Possessions Per Game (23rd)
64.6 AST% (12th)
50.8 REB% (8th)
59.4 TS% (8th)
Suns: The Skinny
116.8 ORTG (10th)
113.7 DRTG (13th)
3.1 NETRTG (8th)
99 PPG (14th)
63.7 AST% (14th)
51.4 REB% (7th)
60.3 TS% (4th)
Preview
Omar Abdullahi runs the Courtside Speaks podcast and is a significant member of Wolves fandom - we had an hour-long talk about the upcoming series with four pointed questions that ultimately got down to major resounding themes in the series.
Q: What's the key matchup in this series?
A: Chris Finch vs Frank Vogel. Vogel's defensive schemes have thrown Minnesota off in all three matchups - and the aggressiveness towards Anthony Edwards off of screens can be remedied by some subtle tweaks by Finch.
Also, Mike Conley on Bradley Beal is simply a defensive assignment that can't continue - Beal is the player out of the big three that will relentlessly attack the rim. He needs to start Nickeil Alexander-Walker and make defensive tweaks right out of the gate or they will be up for a rude awakening in Game 1.
Q: Could you see Coach Finch making any lineup moves?
A: I think he will make some moves - lineups with Walker, Jaden McDaniels, and Karl-Anthony Towns have had positive net ratings against the Suns this season when sharing the court.
Coach Finch is very aware of the potential matchup quirks Nickeil can give him - and playoffs are heavily based around execution as it is.
Nickeil may not start, but he will almost certainly get 30 MPG.
Q: Who do you fear most on the Suns?
A: Bradley Beal in this specific matchup, Kevin Durant in a vacuum.
Beal is a player you cannot take for granted in game-planning - he has been a jack-of-all-trades star in the matchup between the Suns and Wolves. He absolutely can be a difference maker on both sides of the ball. You really have to be creative with how you throw various coverages and game-plan on him.
Q: What's your prediction for the series and why?
A: Wolves in 6.
I will admittedly say I didn't view Phoenix as a threat as recently as a month ago - but they have proven to be an imminent threat to the Wolves over the last two weeks.
Ultimately this is a series that Finch could dictate through subtle adjustments - he won't come with the same game-plans and coverages that he showed in the RS.
At the end of the day, I trust the Wolves' defense more than the Suns' offense - Minnesota also won't shoot 29% on open threes over the course of a series - they will absolutely progress to the mean.
Major Matchup Advantages for Suns
The most obvious advantage is the Suns simply possess the two best players in the series - the two guys who have proven that they can put a team on their back over the course of a series.
The play-styles of Durant and Devin Booker are the direct antithesis of what has made the T-Wolves' defense so historically great this season.
The variety of coverages and blitzing packages coach Vogel can throw at Minnesota have also proven to throw Anthony Edwards out of rhythm
At the end of the day, the matchup advantages have largely been laid out - it's up to the Suns to exploit them.
Major Matchup Advantages for Wolves
The most glaring lateral matchup Minnesota possesses is Towns without a clear mirror on Phoenix's defense - the question is will they include him in post/screen and roll action as much as they should?
Minnesota can also feel good about both their shooting figures and the overarching "math game" progressing to the mean compared to what we saw against the Suns over the last two weeks.
Series Prediction: Suns In Six
It shouldn't be a surprise if either team takes the series - the surprise would be if the series fails to extend beyond five games.
Ultimately, Booker and Durant will be able to take over at least one game in Minnesota while keeping the pace up at home in a tightly contested six-game series.
