Playing the Odds: OKC's Chances in Tomorrow's NBA Draft Lottery
Tomorrow night’s 2021 Draft Lottery has major implications for 14 NBA teams.
A long awaited event for the league’s worst teams, tomorrow’s draw will determine the Draft order. For Oklahoma City, the lottery is nearly as or more important than the draft itself.
Following what was essentially a coin flip with Cleveland, Oklahoma City has the fourth best odds to land top picks in the lottery.
The Thunder have an 11.5 percent chance at the top pick, an 11.4 percent chance at the second overall pick, an 11.2 percent chance at the third, an 11 percent chance at the fourth and a 7.4 percent chance at the fifth overall pick.
The sixth pick is where the percentages ramp up for OKC. They have a 27.1 percent chance for the sixth, and 18 percent chance at the seventh and a 7.1 percent at the eighth pick, the lowest their own can land.
A little bit of luck can go a long way as far as the future of the franchise.
Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham, the projected top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Marc Lebryk / USA TODAY Sports
Should Houston’s pick fall out of the top four, it will convey to Oklahoma City, a massive exchange for the Thunder should it happen in this specific draft. There’s a 47.9 percent chance that Houston’s pick will fall to No. 5, essentially the most important coin flip for both franchises.
Should Oklahoma City land the coveted No. 1 pick in the Draft, it will mean Houston’s pick will convey. No. 1 and 5 is the ideal scenario.
Oklahoma City’s most likely scenario is to pick at No. 6 and No. 18. There’s an 18 percent chance of that happening. Next is No. 5 and No. 7 with a 12 percent chance, and fifth and sixth with a nine percent chance.
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Thunder general manager Sam Presti has accumulated one of the largest war chests of draft picks in league history. In the 2021 Draft, he’ll have three of both first and second round picks, leaving plan ty of flexibility to move up.
Regardless of where the picks fall, it’s sure to be an exciting night for the league.
