Recent History Suggests OKC Thunder Will Breeze Through First Round

The No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies received six double-digit scorers, including 68 combined points from Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane and Ja Morant, to take down Anthony Davis and the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference's final Play-In Tournament game on Friday night.

Their fate? A date with the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder in a best-of-seven playoff series.

During the regular season, Oklahoma City accumulated 20 more wins (68 to 48) and a much, much higher net rating (+12.7 to +4.7) than Memphis — while sweeping the four-game season series with a +75 point differential. In other words, this series going the Thunder's way seems inevitable.

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, like his players, still maintains a game-to-game mindset.

"(The Grizzlies) were the No. 2 seed in the West for a large part of the season for a reason," Daigneault said. "And so a potent opponent. Rolled out the game plan with the guys today, got a good practice in. And we'll throw our best punch tomorrow."

The NBA playoffs have contained 40 first-round series over the last five seasons. Oklahoma City is sitting pretty, considering 32 winners possessed the higher regular season net rating, 31 winners finished with more wins, 26 winners secured the season series and 27 winners earned a higher head-to-head point differential. Just one of the last 10 No. 8 seeds — the 2022-23 Miami Heat — immediately beat their No. 1 counterpart. The Heat also overcame the No. 2 Boston Celtics two rounds later despite an even larger net rating gap than with the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks.

The Thunder won all four overarching factors compared to the Grizzlies, placing them alongside 34 playoff favorites since the 2020 playoffs. Over three-quarters justified their stronger seasons, although last year's No. 5 Mavericks upset three straight conference squads without an advantage in any regular season indicator.

In the last five seasons, all eight teams that won at least 16 more games than their playoff opponent advanced to the next round, including three 2024 series wins from the defending champion Celtics. Still, Oklahoma City must be ready for a high-intensity series against a team defined by effort in their previous playoff clashes.

"We saw (the Grizzlies) in different forms in the regular season," Thunder wing Aaron Wiggins said. "It's gonna be a different kind of game starting in the playoffs tomorrow."

Game 1 between the Thunder and Grizzlies tips off tomorrow in Paycom Center at 12 p.m. CST.

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