Cason Wallace 3 Point Shooting Could Swing OKC Thunder Season

After an offseason of changes, one of the biggest certainties in Bricktown is that fourth-year guard Cason Wallace will be taking on a massive role after Lu Dort was shipped off to Atlanta.

Many believe Wallace will grab hold of Dort's starting spot to be flanked by superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, All-NBA swingman Jalen Williams, All-NBA big man Chet Holmgren, and starting center Isaiah Hartenstein to help Mark Daigneault closely replicate last year's first five. Wallace fits the mold as the team's top defensive guard, while much like Dort, he has proven to be a streaky 3-point shooter to this point in his career.

No matter if Daigneault elects to start Wallace, or fellow young guard Ajay Mitchell, or brings the fifth member of the starting lineup out of left field, it is clear that Wallace will have an extended role. Which is impressive for a player who has been a mainstay of the Thunder's rotation since 2023-24, averaging 24.7 minutes per game in his career, including over 26 minutes per night the last two campaigns.

With this elevated role, many fans and media pundits alike are daydreaming about what Wallace can look like on the ball. This stems from his end-of-February stretch with the team down all of its ball handlers, where the Kentucky product stepped up to average 20 points, six assists, four rebounds, and two steals a night while shooting 50% from the floor, 50% from 3-point land on over five attempts a night, and 90% at the charity stripe across four games.

That was the first time the Thunder had leaned on Wallace as a creator, tapping into his point guard background as a prospect. When the team was desperate for playmaking chops in the postseason, this February stretch didn't shine through again. Sure, this has always been an intriguing part of Wallace's background, and the youngster admits that stretch of the season was fun, but through three seasons, these flashes have been few and far between. Despite being part of a club that is headed up by Daigneault, the most adaptable and experimental coach in the association.

"That was a fun point in time. That was fun, having the ball and just being able to showcase my game and just do what the team needed me to do to win. That's what it's all about at the end of the day is just going out there and trying to win, so I look at those clips and think about that," Wallace said at his end-of-season interview back in May.

Admittedly, it is most fun to spend the summer months envisioning some massive on-ball leap for Wallace and what it could do for this Oklahoma City offense in a title-or-bust season. However, the Thunder do not need that version of Wallace to see the No. 10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft dramatically improve.

If Wallace can find consistency and productivity from beyond the arc, it completely unlocks a different gear for Oklahoma City's offense. Defenses will have to pick their poison when Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Holmgren are on the court. The former two are elite shot creators for themselves and can bend the defense, with the latter being a pesky play finisher throughout the regular season to earn All-NBA honors a year ago. Those shots have to be funneled to someone, and Wallace is a prime target.

If the Kentucky product can punish teams for electing to send heavy traffic to Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, teams will either have to adjust to free up the top two scorers on the team or continue to watch Wallace drain triples. Both bad outcomes for opposing squads.

In his rookie season, Wallace shot an impressive 42% from beyond the arc, including 44% on corner triples and 39% on non-corner 3s. The last two seasons that mark has dipped to 36% and 35% respectively from beyond the arc. Even in the corners, Wallace is coming off a pair of seasons that saw him turn in 34% and 37% showings.

However, this past postseason saw the Kentucky product nail 50% of his 3-point looks on over five attempts a night against the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. Across the entire playoff run, Wallace shot 48% from downtown on over four attempts a night in 15 total games.

If Wallace can revert to his rookie season impact from 3-point land, carrying the momentum from this past season, he becomes a lethal weapon for Oklahoma City's offense without a gaudy leap on the ball.

Oklahoma City putting defenses in a position where they have to be mindful of Wallace's shooting, while extra cautious of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander as bucket getters and Holmgren as a three-level play finishing option to work off the ball against an out-of-sorts defense, would make it a tough lineup to match up against while still putting three elite defenders on the hardwood with Wallace, Williams, and Holmgren.

Sure, Wallace will be under the microscope to start the season as the NBA world examines if he can do more on the ball, the most important skill for the fourth-year guard will actually be as simple as refining the role he already plays with consistency and production.

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