Victor Wembanyama Large NBA MVP Favorite at Kalshi

MVP loading? Kalshi thinks so as Victor Wembanyama tops the board and has been favored to win since the market first opened. For the last three seasons, Wemby took the league by storm, and now his 31% price to win the NBA MVP speaks for itself.

Kalshi’s NBA MVP market lists Wemby ahead of back-to-back winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and by a wide 14% margin at the time of writing. Trading $25 on Wembanyama to win the MVP for the 2026-27 season profits $51.90.

NBA MVP winner - Kalshi

Victor Wembanyama 31%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 17%
Luka Doncic 16%
Nikola Jokic 14%
Jayson Tatum 8%

MVP outing

Victor Wembanyama had an MVP-like showing in the 2025-26 season, where he made his debut in the MVP voting, finishing third behind SGA and Nikola Jokic with five first-place votes. In 64 games, he averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks, and 1.0 steals.

His efforts on the court earned him All-NBA First-Team, All-Defensive First-Team, and Defensive Player of the Year honors.

He led the San Antonio Spurs to their first season above a .500 record since the 2019-20 season and first 60+ win season since 2016-17. This was also the team's first NBA Finals appearance since they won in 2013-14.

Supporting markets

Besides leading the MVP market, he’s also the heavy favorite to win his second straight Defensive Player of the Year. MVP voters also take winning records into consideration, and several Kalshi markets project San Antonio among the league’s best records next year.

Wembanyama complimentary markets

DPOY: 74%
Spurs NBA Championship: 22% (tied 1st)
Spurs best regular season record: 26% (2nd)
Spurs 55+ wins: 72%
Spurs Western Conference Champ.:37% (tied 1st)
Spurs Western Conference #1 seed: 34% (2nd)
Spurs division winner: 50% (favorite)

Added weapons

One of the weaknesses the Spurs faced last season was their three-point shooting. They shot 35.9% from deep, averaging 13.6 made per game.

To surround Wembanyama with shooters and force defenses to play him honestly, the team signed Tobias Harris, who is slated to start at power forward. Harris shot 36.8% from deep last season.

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