Forecasting OKC Thunder's Second-Round Opponent

The No. 5 LA Clippers outdueled the No. 4 Denver Nuggets 111-105 on Thursday night to force a winner-take-all Saturday showdown in Ball Arena. James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell each scored 24 or more points, outweighing five Nuggets in double-digits.

The Nuggets and Clippers have held a series lead at some point, providing high uncertainty for the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder — which completed a sweep of the No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies six days ago. Each team has recorded two clutch-time wins and a blowout home win.

"You have two great teams — they're playing at a high level," said Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein in Wednesday afternoon's practice media availability. "You see it on a night-to-night basis. The adjustments they're both doing, that's something we have to be a little more more prepared for compared to the first series, where it was more of an up-and-down game. ... Being ready for that is gonna be big for us."

Denver went 26-15 with an average +5.8 point differential at home in the regular season, just two more wins than it obtained on the road. However, LA finished 20-21 with an average +0.2 point differential on the road — 10 fewer wins than it secured at Intuit Dome. The Nuggets have already won two of three home games with a +15 point differential in this series.

This season, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic received more usage, averaged 2.9 more points and a +3.9 higher plus-minus in 36 home appearances. Nuggets guard Jamal Murray took three fewer shots per game but finished with 4.3% higher true shooting and averaged a +4.5 higher plus-minus in 32 home games. Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon shot a blistering 39-for-75 (52.0%) on 3-pointers and averaged a +8.2 higher plus-minus in 21 home appearances. Those three players have accounted for 64.0% of Denver's scoring production in the first round.

Four Clippers have taken care of 75.0% of their team's scoring production so far. LA forward Kawhi Leonard averaged 3.5 more points, 0.9 more rebounds and 0.3 more assists — but a -12.2 lower plus-minus in 17 road games. LA guard James Harden averaged 1.2 fewer assists, 1.0 more turnovers and a -11.6 lower plus-minus in 40 road appearances. LA center Ivica Zubac put up nearly identical production but averaged a -9.4 lower plus-minus in 41 road games. The same applies to LA guard Norman Powell, who averaged a -10.2 lower plus-minus in 27 road appearances.

Throughout NBA history, home teams are 112-39 (74.2% WP) in Game 7s. However, road teams have won two of three Game 7s in each of the last four playoff campaigns. Last year, the No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers beat the No. 5 Orlando Magic 106-94 in the first round's deciding game, which serves as the closest comparison to this heavyweight fight.

Denver has the best player and home-court advantage, while LA has more dependable scoring options and a superior defense. History suggests the former factors will make the difference here.

Oklahoma City's preparation has remained consistent since moving on. Its prolonged weeks before sweeping the Grizzlies, and the New Orleans Pelicans last year, mean this experience is nothing new for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort or any other returning rotation player.

"After Game 1, your game plan presents itself at that point," Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. "There's things that you couldn't have predicted that become priorities, and then the series starts to unfold. We've found a comfort with the way that we've prepared, and part of that is not getting too deep too early — just focusing on the things that we know are gonna matter."

The Thunder went 4-0 with an average +18.5 point differential in games with three or more days of rest this season — including a 102-87 season-opening win in Denver. It held those four opponents to 99.8 points per game on a dreadful 49.1% true shooting.

Oklahoma City blew out Memphis 131-80 in Game 1 of the first round after six days of rest. The second round's opening game will likely not match that margin, but the Thunder's performance cannot relent against either of the two possible foes.

"The personality of the team goes a long way, and then the consistency of the environment," Daigneault said. "We have guys that generally understand competition and understand that every day is a new day, every game is a new game. We try to have an environment around them that reinforces that with the consistency of our staff and the consistency of our building. We combine those two things and do the best we can."

Game 7 between the Nuggets and Clippers tips off tomorrow at 6:30 p.m. CST.

If the No. 7 Golden State Warriors secure a second-round berth by beating the No. 2 Houston Rockets tonight, the Thunder will play Game 1 on Tuesday, May 6. If the Rockets extend their series to seven games, the Thunder will play Game 1 on Monday, May 5.

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