How Final Weekend Could Boost OKC Thunder's Odds of Landing Lottery Pick

Oklahoma City’s hopes of adding another lottery pick this offseason could hinge on the final two days of the NBA regular season.

On Friday night and Sunday night, all 30 NBA teams will be in action as teams look to finalize their playoff seeding and potentially move around in the lottery odds. Going into Friday night, there is still plenty to be determined on both fronts, which could impact the Thunder in a variety of ways.

Of course, Oklahoma City is the top seed in the league once again and will be monitoring how its playoff bracket shapes out over the final days of the regular season and into the play-in. Alongside the obvious implications of postseason matchups, the Thunder are also in a unique situation as a top seed, as they’re still monitoring their potential draft picks from other teams.

Currently, the Thunder are slotted to add up to three first-round picks this offseason from other teams’ obligations. With an unprotected pick from the LA Clippers, a top-four protected pick from the Philadelphia 76ers and a top-eight protected pick from the Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City could be in the mix for some of the top young talent in the 2026 class.

While the Clippers' pick gained a lot more attention earlier in the season when they were among the worst teams in the league with a 6-21 start, the hopes of that pick turning into a lottery pick will come down to the play-in. Although the 76ers still have a chance to end up in the top six in the East, it’s likely Oklahoma City will also have to await the play-in to see if that pick ends up in the lottery. Still, if either or both teams drop to 9 or 10 in their respective conference, that would increase the Thunder’s likelihood of getting a top 14 selection.

While those two picks will come down to the play-in, the hopes of getting the Jazz pick will be all but determined in the final weekend of the regular season. As of now, the Jazz have the fourth-best odds at the top pick, making them unable to fall out of the top eight.

However, if Utah slips to fifth in the final weekend of the regular season, there would be a 0.6% chance of the Jazz’s pick ending up at ninth and conveying to the Thunder. With the Jazz matching up against the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night, another win for Utah and moving out of the top four odds is in play.

Of course, the odds of that pick conveying whatsoever are still extremely low, even if the Jazz win another game. At a 0.6% chance of conveying if Utah wins another game, the draft lottery would have to feature the top four picks all going to teams with worse odds than Utah, which almost certainly won’t happen.

Still, it’s not an impossibility, considering only two teams with top-five odds have secured a top-four pick in each of the past two years.