Three Things to Monitor as Oklahoma City Thunder Continue Play-In Push

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back healthy and Kenrich Williams out for the season, there are a few things to keep an eye on as the Thunder continue to push for wins.

In the five games that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed, the Oklahoma City Thunder won just one game after losing against the Phoenix Suns on the second night of a back-to-back, the white-hot Sacramento Kings, and a Los Angeles Lakers squad missing LeBron James and Anthony Davis. 

That losing streak would cause the Thunder to drop to the 13th seed in the Western Conference, allowing the Lakers and Trailblazers to surpass them in standings.

But with their All-Star guard back healthy, the Thunder just reeled off another key win over the Jazz again, 129-119, on Sunday night. That victory will keep Oklahoma City within striking distance of the Play-In picture.

In an exciting matchup, high energy and efficiency on both ends of the floor led the Thunder to a 129-119 win over the Jazz.

🎥 Watch more | https://t.co/CG8VX9pXxn pic.twitter.com/pOnoQ76Ags

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) March 6, 2023

Unfortunately, they will have an uphill battle to fight as they jockey for a higher seed in the West after it was announced on Thursday that their veteran forward and a key cog in their rotation, Kenrich Williams, had suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Their schedule isn’t doing them any favors either with their next ten games featuring matches against the Suns and Clippers, twice, as well as the Warriors, Lakers, and Pelicans.

As the Thunder attempt to navigate their way into the Play-In, here are three things to keep an eye on moving forward:

Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey Duo

Arguably the most important pairing with regards to the Thunder’s lineup data includes that of Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey.

This Thunder team was at it's peak alongside Josh Giddey.

If he's not playing at a high-level, they're not going to look like a play-in team. Full stop.

— Derek Parker (@DParkOK) February 25, 2023

Seasonal lineup data shows that the two share the court for about 21 minutes per game and are producing a net rating of -1.2 across 51 games. But in about 1800 possessions where Gilgeous-Alexander is in without Giddey, the Thunder boast a healthy 8.5 net rating – a whopping 9.7 point differential.

And with Gilgeous-Alexander and no Giddey, the team is producing an offensive rating of 121.8 on the season. With Giddey, the Thunder are scoring just 113.6 points per 100 possessions.

To help put things in perspective, several of Nikola Jokic-led pairings combine to produce a 18.2 net rating for the Denver Nuggets with a few of Boston’s two-man lineups rounding out some of the best ratings in the league. The -1.2 net rating produced by Oklahoma City’s featured duo draws a close comparison to Toronto’s Fred Van Vleet and Gary Trent, Jr. – not exactly fear-inducing.

Moving forward, it’s going to be worth monitoring how the two ball-handlers will mesh with Play-In hopes on the line and how much, if at all, Giddey can bump up his offensive efficiency and/or aggression down the stretch.

Life After Kenrich Williams’ Injury

Thunder says Kenrich Williams suffered a scapholunate ligament rupture in his left wrist during Tuesday’s game against the Kings.

Williams will have surgery and is expected to miss the rest of the season.

— Joe Mussatto (@joe_mussatto) March 2, 2023

There’s no question that the fifth-year forward has made a massive impact on this young squad after signing a long-term deal with the Thunder. Not only is he leading the league in charges, Williams also leads the team in heart. There never seems to be a night where he isn’t giving maximum effort on both ends of the floor.

So how do the Thunder go about replacing the savvy veteran responsible for setting the example and wreaking so much havoc on the defensive end of the floor? Well, there’s certainly no shortage of players on the roster that can fill minutes.

Daigneault could decide to lean on Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams a little bit more to fill Williams’ shoes or he might find that it is the opportune time to give Aaron Wiggins and Ousmane Dieng a little bit more leash. Only time will tell how that will impact the Thunder going forward so it’s worth noting how the coach decides to proceed and who, if anyone, might seize the opportunity.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl's Minutes

Prior to a severe ankle sprain that would sideline him for a couple of months, the second-year forward from Villanova was putting up 8.5 points and five rebounds and shooting 38.2% on almost three 3-point attempts per night, playing both frontcourt positions.

In the eight games he’s been available for since his injury, things haven’t looked promising. Daigneault is seemingly attempting to bring him back into the fold but the results have been poor as Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is averaging just 3.3 points, converting just 23.3% of his field goals and 11.1% of his 18 3-point attempts.

Furthermore, Robinson-Earl didn’t see the court at all in Sunday night’s game after failing to produce points in three of his seven games since his return from injury.

Yes, it could just be rust, and probably is. After all, it’s been a while since the kid has felt healthy and played basketball. Regardless, it’s fair to wonder if now is the right time to be giving him 15-plus minutes a night.

But with Daigneault having an eye on development and a preference for playing almost everyone on the roster on any given night, it’s worth taking notes on if he continues to shoehorn Robinson-Earl into the rotation or decide to look elsewhere for production and how that will impact the team going forward.

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