Proposed NBA Draft Lottery Changes gets Major Clarification

Major changes are coming to the NBA Draft Lottery following months of the NBA combatting tanking, or team’s positioning themselves for losses on purpose.

There’s been various ideas offered up at recent league meetings, though the “3-2-1 lottery” seems to be sticking, and it could soon be the newest system.

The current system features descending odds for 14 teams, with tiers where teams can't fall below a certain spot.

Under the proposed changes, teams would be able to earn one, two or three lottery balls each worth a 2.6% chance at No. 1, with penalties for losing games such as the three-team relegation zone. Teams in the four through nine range would earn the highest odds, flattening significantly from the current system.

Still, there’s plenty to be worked out.

One sub-rule of the 3-2-1 lottery system is that team’s won’t be able to own the No. 1 pick in back-to-back seasons, or earn top-five picks in three consecutive seasons. This would guard against teams loading up on all the talent by losing in a three to four-year span. The San Antonio Spurs recently did this, grabbing Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper back-to-back-to-back.

But the league as a whole has also been using draft picks as currency for some time, and future picks are jumbled as it stands right now. The Clippers this year grabbed a top-five pick, though they’ll be selected via Indiana.

It begs the question: will those rules stick to only team’s choosing with their own pick, or will they extend to others as well?

Per reporting from Yahoo Sports’ Kevin O’Conner, “The streak attaches to the original team.”

For example, Washington earned the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, with its choice to select between AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. Should they trade for an unprotected first in 2027 and it land at No. 1, they’ll be able to stick there. If Washington were to again land No. 1 themselves in 2027, they would be unable to retain the selection.

O'Conner's reporting helps to understand how picks in general will be valued under the new lottery changes. They'll largely retain value for those who have already acquired them, if not moreso given that that could be the only pathway toward replicating what teams like the Spurs, Rockets and Pistons have been able to do with multiple top-five picks.

O'Conner also reported that teams who cannot land in a certain spot will be moved down to the first permissable spot, opposed to re-rolling entirely. A much more favorable ruling.

There's still plenty to work out before finalizing the system, though it seems the NBA will see some iteration of the 3-2-1 lottery.

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