Underdogs? There's reason to believe Timberwolves should beat Lakers

Looking at the numbers, there isn't much L.A. does better than Minnesota.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves looks to pass against Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley during the second quarter at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on Feb. 27, 2025. / Jason Parkhurst-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Timberwolves enter their first-round Western Conference playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers as the underdogs. A day after the matchup was finalized, FanDuel Sportsbook had them as a +164 underdog. ESPN had a panel of NBA reporters pick the winners of each first-round series, and all 10 of them picked the Lakers over the Wolves.

That plays in the Wolves' favor. It was something Rudy Gobert pointed out during the season: When Minnesota was the underdog in last year's playoffs, like against Phoenix and Denver, it played its best basketball and came away victorious. When the Wolves were the favorites against Dallas in the Western Conference finals — well, we all know what happened.

If that anecdote isn't enough to convince you to feel good about the Wolves in this first-round matchup, there are several areas where Minnesota can exploit L.A. in this series, and digging into the numbers, the Wolves are better in nearly every aspect of the game. The Lakers being the favorite is simply a reflection of star power in LeBron James and Luka Doncic.

By the numbers

The difference between the third seed and the sixth seed was mere inches as only one win separated the Wolves and Lakers this season. For the Wolves' faults, inconsistency being chief among them, they finished the season with the eighth-best offensive rating in the NBA (115.7), the sixth-best defensive rating (110.8) and the fourth-best net rating (5.0).

The Lakers lag behind in each category, posting the 11th-best offensive rating (115.0), the 17th-best defensive rating (113.8) and the 14th-best net rating (1.2). Now, that's not an entirely fair comparison as L.A. didn't have Doncic all season, only acquiring him just before the trade deadline. Fair enough — let's take a look at a smaller, and very recent, sample size.

Over the last 15 games of the season, which were critical for both the Wolves and Lakers in the wild Western Conference, Minnesota went 11-4 and had an offensive rating of 121.0 (fifth in the league over that span), a defensive rating of 111.2 (11th) and a net rating of 9.8 (fourth). L.A., meanwhile, finished 8-7 and posted an offensive rating of 117.3 (12th), a defensive rating of 118.0 (23rd) and a net rating of -0.7 (19th). The Wolves were not only better than the Lakers on both ends of the floor season-long, they enter the playoffs following a stretch of some of their best basketball of the season.

Playing to their strengths

There's a clear primary advantage for the Wolves in this series: size. The Lakers rarely play an additional big outside of Jaxson Hayes, and he's not a particularly strong rim protector. That could spell trouble for L.A. as it tries to defend star guard Anthony Edwards at the rim, and it's difficult to see how the team will be able to contain Minnesota's big trio of Gobert, Naz Reid and Julius Randle. An additional boon for the Wolves is Gobert's emergence offensively in recent weeks.

On the flip side, Minnesota does have personnel that can match up against the Lakers. While the trio of James, Doncic and Austin Reaves will certainly get theirs, the Wolves feature a number of strong perimeter defenders like Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and rookie standout Jaylen Clark. McDaniels was the primary matchup for Doncic last year in the playoffs, though Edwards and McDaniels switched matchups deeper into the series. Chris Finch will no doubt have his hands full with the game plan, but he has great defensive personnel to work with, while the Lakers simply lack the size to be able to defend the Wolves.

Weaknesses

While likely inflated by the disaster in Milwaukee, Minnesota's defensive numbers in the clutch over the final 15 games of the season were bad — really bad. Its defensive rating of 131.2 ranked 27th in the NBA over that stretch, while the Lakers' offensive rating in the clutch was 113.9 (ninth). The Timberwolves absolutely have to be better defensively in order to close out games, particularly as they won't be gifted anything in crunch time with James and Doncic on the other end.

The Wolves have been one of the worst clutch teams in the NBA this season with a -8.4 net rating (23rd) and a 20-26 record. The Lakers, on the other hand, went 23-16 in clutch games with a 3.8 net rating (13th). Only six teams — the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavs, OKC Thunder, Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks and Houston Rockets — had better win percentages in clutch time. The most important improvement needed from the Wolves will be their clutch performance.

Impact players

The two biggest impact players for the Wolves this series are Edwards and Gobert. Thus far into his career, Edwards has proven to be a playoff riser. But there's no doubt the Lakers will be trapping him and sending doubles his way all series. Perhaps more important than the impact Edwards can make scoring the ball, is his decision-making when presented with those looks. When Edwards shows a willingness to playmake and create for his teammates, the Wolves are at their best.

Gobert has been playing some of his best offensive basketball since coming to Minnesota in recent weeks, and this might be his best possible matchup to show it in the postseason. He's been a monster on the offensive glass in the final stretch of the season, and it's led to a 33% offensive rebound percentage (third in NBA) for the Wolves in the last 15 games. The impact on both ends of the glass needs to continue for the Frenchman. Perhaps Gobert could also be part of the answer in the clutch; fun fact: in his last five clutch-time games, Gobert has a 140.0 offensive rating and a 100.0 defensive rating.

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