Timberwolves playoff possibilities are all over the place

Minnesota could play just about anyone in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) reacts after guard Anthony Edwards (5) scores against the Washington Wizards in the fourth quarter at Target Center in Minneapolis on April 9, 2024. / Matt Blewett / USA TODAY Sports

The NBA playoffs are right around the corner, and the Timberwolves are down to their last three games of the regular season, beginning with Wednesday night’s crucial matchup in Denver. 

The playoff picture is beginning to come together for the Timberwolves. They’ve clinched a top-three seed in the Western Conference playoffs and are guaranteed home-court advantage in their first-round series. A nice change of pace after back-to-back seasons in the play-in tournament.

But who the Timberwolves will be playing in their first-round playoff series is much murkier. The Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs have all been eliminated from postseason contention, ruling them out of the picture. 

We also know Minnesota won’t be playing the Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder or Los Angeles Clippers, who are all guaranteed to finish in the top five of the conference standings. 

But beyond that, the Timberwolves could be playing any of the rest of the playoff-bound teams in the Western Conference, although some scenarios are certainly more likely than others. 

If the Timberwolves win Wednesday night in Denver, they only need to win one of their two remaining regular-season games; they play the Atlanta Hawks Friday night at Target Center and the Phoenix Suns on Sunday afternoon back at home. They currently have a 47% chance to be the No. 1 seed in the West, per playoffstatus.com, the most likely of their postseason outcomes. 

If Minnesota earns the top seed in the conference, it will play one of the play-in winners in the first round of the postseason. Currently the Suns, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are 7-10 in the Western Conference standings. 

Per playoffstatus.com, the most likely scenario is that the Kings move up to No. 7, the Suns end up at No. 8, the Warriors land ninth and the Lakers sneak into the final play-in spot. That would mean the Kings and Suns are the first play-in matchup, with the winner securing the seventh playoff spot, in this case scenario, facing either the Nuggets or Thunder. 

Meanwhile the loser of that game would play the winner of the Warriors-Lakers play-in game for the eighth and final playoff spot. Essentially, if the Wolves clinch the No. 1 seed, they’ll most likely be playing either the Kings, Suns, Warriors or Lakers. The Pelicans could also end up in the play-in if things go south, although they have a 77% chance of clinching the No. 6 seed.

The second-most likely outcome for the Timberwolves is that they end up with the No. 2 seed in the West. In that case scenario, they would play the winner of the play-in game between the seventh and eighth seeds, which are most likely to be the Kings and Suns, but the Pelicans, Lakers and Warriors can all still mathematically be in that position. 

The Timberwolves do still have a 12% chance to be the third seed, as well, per playoffstatus.com, in which case they would play the six seed in the West, which is most likely to be the Pelicans. But it’s still mathematically possible that the Mavericks, Suns, Kings, Lakers and Warriors could end up in that spot, as well. Basically, the Wolves could play pretty much anyone.

There should be more clarity after Wednesday night’s slate of games. The winner of the Timberwolves-Nuggets game will be in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the conference. Meanwhile, the Suns and Clippers face off Wednesday night as well, and if the Clippers win, they’ll be locked into the fourth seed in the West.