Timberwolves Clinching Scenario and Playoff Seeding Outlook on Tuesday

The Timberwolves have another chance to clinch their spot in the postseason on Tuesday evening. Their magic number to secure a top-six seed and avoid the play-in tournament is two, meaning they need a win and a Suns loss to make it official.

That was also the case on Sunday, when the Wolves lost to the Hornets and the Suns beat the Bulls. Tonight's outlook is more promising for Minnesota.

Even without Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the Wolves are 12.5-point favorites in Indianapolis against the 18-60 Pacers, for whom a loss would be the preferred outcome. That game is at 6 p.m. central time. Later tonight, the Suns host the Rockets in what is essentially a toss-up game from an odds standpoint. That one isn't until 10 p.m. CT on NBC/Peacock, so we won't know until after midnight if the Wolves have clinched.

The first step is for the Timberwolves to handle business against Indiana and trim the magic number down to one. That way, even if the Suns win the late game, just one Wolves win OR Suns loss in their final six combined games would get it done.

As for the Wolves' seeding outlook and possible first-round matchups, a big comeback by the Nuggets on Monday night made it even more likely that Minnesota and Denver will square off in the opening round. The Nuggets trailed by 18 points late in the third quarter against the Trail Blazers, but rallied and won in overtime. They now hold the No. 3 seed.

NBA Western Conference Standings prior to games on Tuesday, April 7 | ESPN.com

The Wolves would love to face the Lakers in the first round, given that they're expected to be without Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. However, that's looking rather unlikely at this point. On Tuesday night, the shorthanded Lakers are 17.5-point home underdogs against the Thunder, who still have a bit of work to do to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference.

The Lakers do have the tiebreaker over the Nuggets, but assuming they lose tonight, they'll have to make up a game on Denver in the final three. The Lakers have the Warriors, Suns, and Jazz to end the season. The Nuggets have the Grizzlies, Thunder, and Spurs, but it's entirely possible OKC and San Antonio will be locked into their seeds by the time those games happen, meaning they could rest some of their top players.

If you assume the Nuggets will hold onto the No. 3 seed, the other way for the Wolves to avoid them in the first round would be to pass the Rockets for the No. 5 seed. In that regard, a Suns win over Houston on Tuesday could be a good thing, even though it would delay Minnesota clinching a top-six spot.

If the Wolves win their final four games, including a win in Houston on Friday night, they'd finish 50-32. Then, if the Rockets finish 1-3 (losses to Phoenix, Minnesota, and either Philadelphia or Memphis), they'd also be 50-32 and would slide to the No. 6 seed due to losing the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Wolves. That would set up Lakers-Wolves in the 4-5 series.

Nuggets-Wolves in the 3-6 matchup is by far the most likely outcome at this point, but who knows what could happen over the final six days of the regular season?