Which of 3 Potential First-Round Opponents Should Wolves Hope to Face?

With less than two weeks remaining in the NBA regular season, the Timberwolves are essentially locked into finishing between fourth and sixth in the Western Conference standings. Barring something drastic, they aren't going to catch the Lakers in third, and the seventh-place Suns are no longer a threat to escape the Play-In Tournament.

That means the Wolves have three potential first-round opponents. If they end up in sixth, they'd likely get a rematch of last year's first round against the Lakers. If they're in the 4-5 series, it'll probably be against the Nuggets or the Rockets, with Houston currently the least likely of the three.

All three series are winnable; we've seen the Timberwolves beat two of those three teams (and the Rockets' best player) over their last two runs to the Western Conference Finals. But which opponent should Minnesota be hoping for? Let's rank them from most to least desirable.

1. Houston Rockets

Kyle Anderson | Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Wolves' ideal first-round opponent is the Rockets, but it'll take a strong finish from both teams in order for this series to happen. Right now, both Minnesota and Houston are 1.5 games back of Denver, and neither one has the tiebreaker over the Nuggets. For this series to occur, they'll both have to outright pass Denver to get into the 4-5 matchup. What makes that somewhat possible is that the Nuggets still have a game against the Thunder and two against the Spurs in their final six.

Since the All-Star break, the Rockets are 13th in the NBA in net rating, solidly behind the Lakers and Nuggets. The Wolves have played them close twice this season, both times without Anthony Edwards. They nearly won in Houston back in January, then beat the Rockets in unbelievable fashion last week at Target Center. Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson are all quite good, but this feels like an advantageous matchup for a healthy Timberwolves team. There are questions about Ime Udoka's coaching and the Rockets' general vibe going into the postseason.

2. Los Angeles Lakers

Ayo Dosunmu | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

If the Lakers and Nuggets both close the year relatively strongly, the question might come down to which of those two teams the Wolves would rather face. And while it's close, I think the answer is Los Angeles. Yes, the Wolves are 0-3 against the Lakers this season, but we just saw them handle LA in five games in last year's first round. So even though this is a better Lakers team than last year, and even though Luka Doncic is extremely hard to defend, I think Minnesota would go into this series confident that it could pull off another 6-3 upset.

The Lakers have a much deeper rotation this season with Marcus Smart, DeAndre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Jake LaRavia. Those are big upgrades from Dorian Finney-Smith, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt, who were the fifth through seventh players in LA's rotation in last year's first round. This series would almost certainly go six or seven games. But if the Wolves get Jaden McDaniels back healthy and continue to get this kind of play from Ayo Dosunmu, they'll have a great shot.

3. Denver Nuggets

Anthony Edwards | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

There's a real chance we're headed for another installment of what's become a fairly epic rivalry in recent years. This series, which would likely be the 4-5 matchup, would be the third playoff meeting in the last four years between the Timberwolves and Nuggets. And if the 2024 second-round series and a couple regular season games over the past year are any indication, we'd be in for a treat.

The Wolves are 1-3 against the Nuggets this season, but they did win the most recent matchup in Denver a month ago. One of those losses was an overtime classic on Christmas night that featured 56 points from Nikola Jokic and 44 from Edwards. Exactly one year ago, these teams played a 2OT thriller in which the Wolves overcame a 61-point triple-double from Jokic. When Minnesota and Denver meet up, the basketball is almost always entertaining.

In an ideal world, the Timberwolves would avoid facing Jokic and Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon in the first round. But if this series does happen, the Wolves won't be daunted. They've beaten this team before, and with Edwards leading the way, they'll feel like they can do it again.