Potential Downsides to the Timberwolves Signing Jonathan Kuminga

The Minnesota Timberwolves are set to sign Jonathan Kuminga to what can best be described as a bargain contract of two years and $12.4 million. The Los Angeles Lakers reportedly offered twice as much money and an extra year, and Kuminga chose the Wolves.

By definition, the move is a bargain, and it's hard to see potential downside and risk based on the short contract and extremely low salary.

But not all bargain contracts are created equally. There are reasons why Kuminga remained in limbo until late September last year before signing his extension with the Warriors, and why he was still a free agent during the last week of August this summer.

Let's break down the primary concerns with the addition of Kuminga to the Timberwolves' roster.

1. Usage: Will Kuminga expect to be a feature of the Wolves' offense?

Kuminga came into the league as the No. 7 overall pick in 2021 and immediately won a title as a member of the Warriors' rotation. He only started 12 games and averaged just 16.9 minutes per game during his rookie season but the per-36-minute numbers were impressive: 19.8 points and 7.1 rebounds while shooting 33.6 percent on 3-point attempts.

Fast-forward two years to the 2023-24 campaign. The Warriors won 46 games but flamed out in the Play-In. Kuminga finished in a virtual tie with Klay Thompson for second on the team in usage rate behind Steph Curry. Kuminga was third on the team in scoring, although the three-point shooting accuracy dipped to 32.1% after it had sat at 37% the year prior.

The following season, the Warriors offense dropped to No. 17 in efficiency and the team leaned on their defense to win 48 games before falling to the Wolves in the second round of the playoffs following a Curry injury.

With Thompson gone, Kuminga's usage rate was second on the team behind Curry—much higher than Jimmy Butler's after the star guard was acquired mid-season and played in 30 regular-season games for the Warriors. Then, in 2025-26, the Warriors offense was equally as disappointing and Kuminga was traded to Atlanta prior to the deadline.

Ultimately, Kuminga was consistently the second or third option on a Warriors team that slid from No. 8 to No. 19 over the course of his four-plus seasons in Golden State. That means that there are two issues to consider.

First, this was a Warriors offense driven by Curry, one of the best offensive players in NBA history. If Kuminga couldn't help Curry elevate the Warriors offense above the league's bottom half as the second or third option, it's something of an indictment on Kuminga himself.

Second, Kuminga is accustomed to being a second or third option. He will unquestionably not be that in Minnesota, with Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball running the show and Jaden McDaniels coming off of a career-high 14.8 point-per-game scoring season on 41.2 percent shooting from deep. And don't forget about Rudy Gobert, who is no doubt expecting an uptick in usage setting screens and rolling with Ball at the helm.

Will Kuminga be willing to lean into the 2023-24 version of himself, relying more on transition opportunities and flourishing as a cutter, as opposed to the more recent version that included more isolation play and handling the ball in the pick-and-roll?

There's a lot to like about that version of Kuminga running the floor with Ball and Edwards. But in the wake of the Julius Randle experience, it is fair to have concern regarding what the halfcourt offense might look like if Kuminga allows the ball to get sticky.

2. Shooting: Will the Wolves have the same spacing issues as last year?

By the end of last season, the Timberwolves offense had fallen out of the top-third of the league. There were several reasons for this, of course, and Edwards's injury issues were chief among them. But spacing, with and without Edwards on the floor, was a notable issue.

Julius Randle's three-point shooting dipped to just 31.5% last season after sitting at a serviceable 34.4% during the 2024-25 season. Playing alongside Gobert, the Wolves often had two non-shooters on the floor as teams simply did not respect Randle's long-range shooting ability.

Part of the excitement of the Ball addition was tethered to the exit of Randle. After that trade, it appeared as though Gobert and any spot minutes given to Jaylen Clark would be the only non-shooters in the rotation. Ball could run the floor and spray passes to plus shooters galore: Edwards, McDaniels, Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, Terrence Shannon Jr., and newcomer Josh Green.

But now, the Wolves are introducing another below-average three-point shooter to the same role that Randle is exiting. Since the 37% mark that Kuminga put up in his second season, he shot just 31.8% on 421 attempts across the next three campaigns. For comparison, Randle shot 32.4% on 904 attempts over his last three seasons.

Corner three-point shooting is an important element in the Wolves offense and for anyone that plays with LaMelo Ball, and Kuminga has struggled there, too. He was solid from the corners during his strong shooting season in 2022-23 and he also made 43.5% of his corner threes in the 2023-24 season, when he was only 32.1% overall from outside the arc. But those attempts also only made up just over a quarter of his total three-point tries that year.

Put simply, the Wolves are replacing a below-average outside shooter with a slightly worse outside shooter. Certainly, the Wolves are banking on the idea that Kuminga attacking closeouts is far more dynamic than Randle bullying his way into a mid-range jumper, but the level at which the defense respects—or doesn't respect—Kuminga's outside shot will be a factor.

3. The Other Stuff: What happened in Golden State?

It's no secret that Kuminga's tenure in Golden State was a rocky one.

The most obvious issues stem from role; Kuminga publicly clamored for more on-ball opportunities and while he was always a key part of the offense, it's hard to understand why he though more of the offense should flow through him with the likes of Curry, Thompson, and Butler on the roster. Ultimately, Kerr swung hard the other way, handing Kuminga DNP-CDs and leaving the former lottery pick to sit on the bench.

The issues culminated in the contract dispute last summer and then some relatively minor, albeit not insignificant, in-season issues last year. The Warriors finally shipped Kuminga to the Hawks, ending a saga that all parties surely wish had not dragged on for as many years as it did.

Kuminga was seemingly a good soldier in his short time in Atlanta. And while it's completely understandable that the Hawks chose to decline his $24.3 million option for the upcoming season and allow him to hit unrestricted free agency, it was still an active choice by Atlanta to let him go.

On the one hand, Kerr had plenty of decent things to say about Kuminga after his exit last season, blaming the issues more on a young, inexperienced player trying to join a veteran contender on the fly than anything more serious.

Steve Kerr to ESPN on Jonathan Kuminga: "He needed the runway to make more mistakes...It was very tough not being allowed to make those mistakes. For us as a staff, it was tricky trying to develop him while we were trying to win. I think it’s as simple as that."

Full quote pic.twitter.com/WNneAegbaP
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) February 5, 2026

But on the other hand, two of the best coaches in the league in Kerr and Atlanta's Quin Snyder both actively chose to move on from Kuminga. Even if it's overplayed, it also can't be ignored.

While the actual value of the contract and the upside of what Kuminga could bring the Wolves this season is, by definition, a bargain, there are certainly multiple worlds in which this marriage could go sidewise. And even if the financial burden is slight, there is always potential for there to be locker room or player-coach relationship challenges or for the offense to be dragged down by Kuminga's usage desires or lack of shooting ability.

The signing of Kuminga is a deliberate risk-reward calculation by the Wolves front office. Without Kuminga, the frontcourt is thin and the Wolves would be playing much smaller than their opponents a significant chunk of the time. With him, the ceiling of the team is much higher, but the potential for additional challenges to arrive is real.

But when you're a fringe title contender that already made a huge offseason swing, it's hard to argue against making a move such as this. The Wolves are going for it, and wherever they end up, Kuminga will be a key part of the journey.

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