The Lumps of Destiny Are Waiting for Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs

Victor Wembanyama and the young San Antonio Spurs might look like a unicorn contender. History says they're headed for the Lumps of Destiny.

The NBA has a very cruel rite of passage in which a superstar rarely enters the playoffs for the first time and wins the championship. From Michael Jordan to Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, none of the game's greats have found a way to lift the championship trophy before taking their lumps.

Outside of George Mikan, Magic Johnson, and several Celtics stars from yesteryear (Bill Russell, Kevin McHale, and John Havlicek), the list of NBA greats to win a title in their first trip to the playoffs is very short. It didn't happen in the NBA's early days, and it just doesn't happen at all in the modern era.

Michael Jordan took his lumps six straight years against the Bucks, Celtics (twice), and Pistons (three times) before breaking through to win the first of six titles in 1991.
LeBron James didn't win a championship, despite five straight trips to the postseason with Cleveland, until he fled for Miami.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar won a title in his second playoff appearance, having had to take his lumps against Bill Bradley, Willis Reed, and the Knicks in 1970.
Wilt Chamberlain took playoff lumps against the Celtics when he played for the Philadelphia Warriors, not winning a title until his 9th season.
Larry Bird took lumps in his first foray into the postseason from Mo Cheeks, Julius Erving, Lionel Hollins, and the 76ers.
Tim Duncan had to learn from the Jazz before breaking out.
Oscar Robertson played for a decade and didn't win a title until he teamed up with Abdul-Jabbar.
Kobe Bryant's Lakers were bounced by the Jazz and Spurs in consecutive seasons before winning three straight titles.
Shaquille O'Neal was on those same Lakers teams after getting close while taking lumps in Orlando.
Kevin Durant, a unicorn himself, had to take lumps with the Sonics and Thunder before his controversial decision to join the 73-win Warriors.
Hakeem Olajuwon took lumps for eight seasons in the playoffs before winning back-to-back titles in 1994-95.
Steph Curry took his lumps from the Spurs and Clippers in his first two trips to the postseason, which eventually led to a dynasty.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had to take his lumps from Dallas in 2024 before breaking through with Oklahoma City last season.

Dirk Nowitzki, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Kevin Garnett, Moses Malone, Giannis Antetokounmpo, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, John Stockton. The list goes on and on.

Anthony Edwards? This might not be the year he breaks through, especially since he's battling injuries to both of his knees, but he's already taken his lumps in the past two conference finals against the Mavericks and Thunder.

The Spurs won 62 games. They are a juggernaut. Elite on defense, spicy on offense, with skilled players who can score inside and out. But they are young and have very little playoff experience outside of taking down an average Portland team in the first round.

In fact, everyone in their top seven, except De'Aaron Fox, is playing in the playoffs for the first time this season. The only two with extensive playoff experience are Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet, who are playing 10-20 minutes off the bench this season.

Spurs playoff experience prior to 2026:

De'Aaron Fox: 2023
Stephon Castle: None
Devin Vassell: None
Julian Champagnie: None
Victor Wembanyama: None
Dylan Harper: None
Keldon Johnson: None
Harrison Barnes: 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2023
Luke Kornet: 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 202
Carter Bryant: None

The Lumps of Destiny await the Spurs. The only question is who delivers them and how soon.

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