How Jimmy Butler’s Injury Will Affect This Year’s NBA Trade Deadline

The Warriors now sit at the center of the trade market, with a Jonathan Kuminga decision looming and the window closing on Steph Curry’s prime.

Jimmy Butler was injured during the Warriors’ game against the Heat on Monday, weeks ahead of the NBA trade deadline. | Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Things can change in an instant in the NBA. The Warriors were painfully reminded of that on Monday night. 

As Golden State was battling with the Heat at the Chase Center, All-Star forward Jimmy Butler suddenly crumpled to the ground in pain after coming down with an offensive rebound. The veteran star made several of his teammates crack a smile with a few jokes on his way off the floor, but his strong spirit couldn’t stop the worst news from coming a few hours later—Butler suffered a torn ACL. His season is over. Indeed, at 36 years old, it may prove a fatal blow to Butler’s long-standing place among the NBA’s most productive two-way players. Other ripple effects will be plentiful, and some won’t be fully realized for months or even years. 

Immediately, though, Butler’s injury will send shock waves through the league and has the potential to dramatically alter this year’s trade deadline. 

How Jimmy Butler’s injury changes Warriors’ deadline plans

Leading into Monday, Golden State, sitting a few games above Portland for eighth in the West, figured to be active at the deadline to some degree thanks to the Jonathan Kuminga situation finally boiling over. The fifth-year forward demanded a trade out of Golden State the moment he became eligible on Jan. 15. It felt like a rocky relationship between player and team hitting its breaking point. Kuminga struggled to stay in coach Steve Kerr’s rotation over the years and went through a protracted contract standoff in the summer during which his efforts to get traded were fruitless. Then he began the new season as a starter, got yanked when he began to struggle, suffered an injury and wound up glued to the bench, where he remained through Monday’s game; Kuminga hadn’t seen a single minute of action since Dec. 20. 

Throughout the saga the reporting has been consistent that the Warriors were not going to trade him just because he was unhappy. They desired something of value in return for their former lottery pick. But the last few months of discontent culminating in Kuminga’s first formal trade request seemed like it might have finally broken the dam. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported “essentially every major figure on the ground level of the operation,” like Kuminga, Kerr, and the other Warriors veterans, “agree that the best resolution is to trade Kuminga prior to the deadline.” 

Thus, all signs pointed to a Kuminga trade as an inevitability rather than a possibility and Golden State figured to be active trying to find a package general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. deemed worthy of Kuminga’s value. The team invested a high pick in Kuminga, selecting him seventh in the 2020 draft, but throughout his career thus far the 23-year-old forward’s potential has been outsized compared to his production. Kuminga averaged only 11.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game when he was in Kerr’s rotation earlier this season, and his defensive effort was inconsistent at best. That’s not the profile of an enviable trade piece that could result in a positive return. But the Warriors, and perhaps other teams, believe Kuminga’s potential as an athletic two-way wing makes him more valuable than the raw numbers suggest. Trying to take a huge swing with his $22.5 million salary to land a star didn’t appear terribly likely but trading him to a team like the Kings or the Mavericks in exchange for a rotation player certainly seemed on the table. 

McKeone: Three Realistic Jonathan Kuminga Landing Spots After Warriors Trade Demand

Now the Warriors’ short- and long-term outlooks have completely changed. There is suddenly a gaping hole in the rotation at forward where Butler played over 30 minutes per game. That’s a big problem considering the Warriors are under pressure to seriously contend this season with Steph Curry still proving capable of winning games and putting up big numbers. The sort of roster weakness the team now has sans Butler must be addressed very quickly if Golden State is to climb out of the play-in tournament. It would be unwise to rely on Draymond Green and Al Horford for that purpose given the mileage both longtime vets have accumulated. Quinten Post is a stretch five who can masquerade as a four for short stretches but obviously holds a much different skill set than Butler. 

Which leaves the Warriors with two realistic options: Play Kuminga again or find an alternative on the trade market. With a few weeks to go before the Feb. 5 trade deadline, they started with the Kuminga path. The forward came off the bench on Tuesday night and played 21 minutes, scoring 20 points. The Warriors lost 145–127, but Kuminga was a +3 in his minutes on the court. If that’s the version of Kuminga Golden State would get for the rest of the season, that would thrill the franchise and perhaps set the table for an offseason trade that would garner the return Dunleavy has been holding out for. 

But given how the organizational relationship with Kuminga has deteriorated, that ideal outcome seems more like a pipe dream. And even in such a dream world where Kuminga suddenly revives his Warriors career the team doesn’t have enough firepower to beat the real monsters of the conference like the Thunder or Nuggets. Which means the Warriors could wind up big players at the deadline even with Kuminga back in the rotation for the time being. 

What GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. said about Warriors’ deadline approach

Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. discussed the impact of Jimmy Butler’s injury as well as Jonathan Kuminga’s trade demand this week. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

After the Butler injury, Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix reported a rival team exec told him “everything should be on the table” for the Warriors. A few hours later, Dunleavy got in front of assembled media to discuss how his front office will approach the coming months with Butler sidelined. His comments were illuminating. 

Most notably Dunleavy said he does not “envision” flipping Butler and his $54 million salary after he got hurt. It is a careful choice of words typical from an NBA GM that doesn’t rule out a Butler move completely, but it’s safe to assume Golden State does not view getting out from his contract as a priority. Nor does the team feel he’ll be a necessary aspect of any prospective trade they can currently foresee on the horizon. 

Which leads into Dunleavy’s telling view on draft picks. Reports have suggested Golden State has long been loath to put any draft picks from years down the line on the table for trades. It is an understandable view in a vacuum; the franchise’s infamous “two timeline” approach has failed spectacularly and there will likely be quite a few losses waiting after Curry retires. But for that same reason those are valuable resources that can be used to upgrade the roster right now. In his news conference, Dunleavy said those picks “always will and have been in play,” and if there’s a great player available they'll be willing to use “everything in the war chest.” But it all came with a key caveat.  

“If we’re talking about trading draft picks that will be going out when Steph isn’t here, it’s going to have to be a player that we think we’ll be getting back that is going to be here when those picks are going out,” the GM said. 

The Warriors have control over nearly all of their future draft picks with the exception of 2030, which is a top-20 protected pick owed to the Wizards. Beginning with the 2026 draft they can mix and match the equivalent of at least three first-round picks to include in a trade this year. But Dunleavy indicates the franchise is not willing to send out a pick to convey six years down the line for a player who won’t be in a Golden State uniform for that long—which narrows the pool of possible targets considerably. 

Finally, the Warriors GM addressed the Kuminga trade situation, and he didn’t sound eager to grant the young forward’s trade wish. Dunleavy acknowledged he’s “disappointed” in how the situation has unfolded but pretty bluntly stated there needs to be a “demand on the market” in order to grant a player’s trade request. Technically speaking that is not true; if Golden State really wanted Kuminga out of the building there’s a deal to be struck with any team willing to match salary. But the quote reflects how set the organization is on its quest to get something of value in return for Kuminga, as well as the belief that isn’t possible at the moment. 

It’s always fascinating to watch a team’s decision-maker navigate a complicated roster-building situation in real time. But what does it mean for the deadline at large?

How Warriors fit into the trade deadline post-Butler injury

The overall message of Dunleavy’s news conference was fairly straightforward: The Warriors are open for business, but only at the right price. Which has been the standard operation procedure in Golden State for the entirety of the Dunleavy era. They aren’t going to dump Kuminga for nothing, and they aren’t going to wildly throw around draft picks for a short-term rental no matter how good they might be. 

That’s the stance for now, anyway. The Warriors could very well end up more desperate to make a move. Why? Because of Curry. The superstar point guard is still one of the NBA’s best players on a nightly basis, with his 27.1 points per game ranking 12th in the NBA. He’s certainly good enough to be a top scoring option on a championship team. But he isn’t a 2018 LeBron type who can carry a shorthanded or overmatched roster to the Finals. That’s why the Warriors went out and got Butler in the first place. 

Curry can get them close to the finish line but he needs star talent around him to get across it. Once upon a time it felt like such talent grew on trees within the Warriors organization. That’s no longer the case. Curry’s best teammate is down for the count and the closest thing to an in-house replacement is a disgruntled 23-year-old who has been fighting with the organization since last July. It’s a somewhat dire situation considering how few years Curry likely has left with his 38th birthday right around the corner. 

Regardless of whether the Warriors are thinking along those lines, Golden State figures to be a major player at the deadline now. Something like a package that would send Kuminga to the Mavs and a solid rotation player like P.J. Washington back to Golden State seems in line with Dunleavy’s comments about balancing the present and the future. The Warriors could also opt to keep Kuminga and dangle Buddy Hield’s $9 million salary along with draft picks for a smaller move. Anyone hoping for a blockbuster will probably be disappointed. The biggest names in trade rumors this season that fit from a play style perspective, such as Anthony Davis or even Giannis Antetokounmpo, don’t fit the timeline Dunleavy described above. Lauri Markkanen is one of the very few high-level players who checks those boxes and is gettable via trade but the Ainge family will demand everything not nailed down at the Chase Center in exchange for the Jazz star. 

There are a lot of possibilities, clearly. That was the case before Butler got hurt. But now the Warriors will be driven to make some kind of move. Standing pat is not an acceptable option. Dunleavy was willing to admit the team wasn’t as good without Butler, which serves as an acknowledgement that they must add to the roster if they have any hope of competing for a title. It makes for an explosive mix of motive, means and opportunity. 

The Butler injury altered the course of the Warriors’ future, both in the near and far. It’ll also result in a much more interesting and unpredictable trade deadline, with Golden State smack at the center of the action. The next two weeks will be very, very interesting to watch unfold.

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