3 Bold Predictions for Warriors' 2026-27 Season: Yaxel's ROY Case Explored

Making bold predictions for any team is always a challenge.

Some would argue that for something to be "bold," it has to be borderline outrageous. So in Golden State Warriors terms, some would argue a bold prediction would be that Draymond Green wins Defensive Player of the Year 10 years after the one time he won it or Stephen Curry wins MVP 11 years after winning his second.

My goal in this article is to predict things that will actually happen, instead of predicting something that I don't think will happen to satisfy the "bold" requirement.

With that said, I'd argue there is some boldness to all of these predictions.

Warriors Miss the Playoffs

Expectations for the Warriors' 2026-27 season have rarely been lower over the last 15 years. Or at least the expectations of them from most fans and national pundits.

Most sportsbooks have set the Warriors' win total over/under between 36.5 and 39.5. If they finish with a win total in that neighborhood, they'll likely be bound for the play-in tournament again.

So it's not the boldest take ever to say the Warriors will miss the playoffs, but I couldn't write a predictions article without addressing how the team will fare.

The biggest issue with the Warriors is player availability.

If the Warriors could guarantee that they stayed relatively healthy until Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody return—and then stayed relatively healthy after their return—they would make the playoffs.

But there are simply too many injury landmines they must avoid.

Curry has suffered two significant injuries (hamstring strain and runner's knee) in the past 17 months. If he gets significantly hurt again, that would be crushing.

We don't know when Kristaps Porzingis will return from his health issue.

Al Horford missed 37 games last year. Draymond Green has been pretty healthy over his career, but as he's relied on to play small-ball center as a 36-year-old, he'll be more likely to get worn down.

Even when everyone is healthy, this isn't a 60-win juggernaut. The Dubs need to make a trade for one more high-impact player, but they've shown almost no willingness to trade first-round draft capital over the last few years.

There is a pathway for the Warriors to make the playoffs comfortably if some health issues go their way.

I'm simply guessing they don't.

Yaxel Finishes Second in Rookie of the Year Voting

Yaxel Lendeborg was the Warriors' biggest bright spot of the preseason, and I'm expecting him to be their biggest bright spot of the regular season as well.

Historically, the Rookie of the Year award has been given to the player with the best counting stats, which would give Darius Acuff Jr. a great shot.

But I believe voters value efficiency more than ever, which would give Cameron Boozer and Lendeborg the edge, as they were the only two lottery picks to average at least 24 points per 36 minutes on 62-plus true shooting percentage in the preseason (minimum of two preseason games).

Some sportsbooks have given Lendeborg the sixth-best odds to win Rookie of the Year. Those odds feel a bit off.

He has the talent to win the award. And he'll likely get tons of playing time.

But I predict his numbers will be slightly worse than Boozer's, and that will be the reason he falls just short.

Bassey Starts 20-Plus Games at Center

The impetus of this prediction is team's health issues and Charles Bassey being primed for his best NBA season.

We already talked about the health issues above, but the gist of it is that Porzingis is already out and Green and Horford probably have heightened risks to get hurt this season.

The timing of this prediction could be called into question because Bassey has knee tendintis, but he told Warriors beat writer Luca Evans it isn't serious.

As for Bassey being primed for his best season, take a look at his per-36 minutes preseason stats:

- 17.4 points, 14.0 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 2.6 steals, 2.3 assists, 66.7 field-goal percentage

In five regular-season games with the Warriors last year, Bassey was also impressive (per-36 minutes stats):

- 19.1 points, 13.0 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.8 assists, 67.7 field-goal percentage

As a rebounder and shot-blocker, Bassey is the Warriors' most productive center.

When Porzingis, Horford and Green are out, Bassey will start. But that might not be the only time he starts.

Steve Kerr could prefer to have Bassey start over Horford at times. In games when Green starts at the 4 (likely because Lendeborg or Gui Santos is out), Steve Kerr could try having Bassey as Green's frontcourt mate.

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