How Warriors Can Make Impactful Trade without Mortgaging the Future

When discussing the future of the Golden State Warriors, many fans and analysts say it would be reckless to "mortgage the future" to help 38-year-old Stephen Curry compete now.

CBS Sports' Sam Quinn is the latest to say the Warriors are wise to not make a big trade.

Over several posts on X, Quinn argued that the Dubs are so far away from contention that they'd have to make multiple moves, which might cost control of most, if not all, of the first-round picks they own over the next seven years.

Doing so would set them back several years after Curry's retirement, a misery he argues the Warriors must avoid.

Quinn is describing a worst-case scenario that could happen. The Warriors could go all-in on this season by acquiring players they'll have trouble trading for much value in the future. Doing that would set them back.

But Quinn is dismissing the best-case scenario, which is getting better now and being able to recoup some of the trade assets in the future.

How realistic is the best-case scenario? Let's investigate.

The Bold Move the Warriors Aren't Exploring

There are two ways in which the Warriors can a) improve their roster this year and b) not set back their rebuild much in the future.

The first is trading a small draft capital price for a player who is more impactful than that trade price suggests.

The second is trading a big draft capital price for an impactful player whose value should stay high enough that the team can trade him for an almost-as-big price in a few years.

Pulling off the first idea would require extra bold thinking from the Warriors front office, and frankly it doesn't seem like the Dubs are even trying to do it.

My most cited example is the Celtics trading a 2022 first-round pick (became No. 25 pick Blake Wesley), a 2028 first-round pick swap and salary filler for Derrick White.

At the time, White was a low-end starter with solid defense and decent playmaking for a 2-guard but below-average three-point shooting.

Since the trade, White has made three All-Defensive teams and improved his three-point shooting. Better surroundings enhanced his game, and now the trade is viewed a heist in Boston's favor.

It's difficult to suggest who the next White could be, but the point is there are White-like moves out there for creative front offices. It would not "mortgage the future" if the Warriors traded a 2027 first-round pick and a future first-round pick swap, and getting a player who impacts the game like White does would accomplish the goal of making the Dubs much better.

The Move the Warriors Are Exploring But Aren't Making

The second way the Warriors can improve the roster and not set back the rebuild is making a costly trade for a player they trade away years later.

It sounds great in theory. For example, the Warriors could've traded four unprotected first-round picks for Jaylen Brown, kept him for the next three-plus years while Curry is still playing, and then traded him to a contender for some first-round draft capital.

But there are obvious risks in this plan.

For one, Brown (or any acquired trade target) might not be willing to sign an extension with the Warriors. If so, the Dubs would have to trade him before his contract runs out.

Brown has three years left on his deal, so at least the Warriors could have gotten a couple years out of him before trading him as an expiring contract.

That could be worth it if the Dubs get back the number of first-round picks they gave up for him. But what if they can't find a buyer willing to give back the number they gave up? And even if they do find said buyer, what if the buyer is expected to be a title front-runner for the next half-decade? That would mean you're trading for picks that land in the low-20s, whereas some of the picks you gave up could land in the top 10.

Brown got traded to the 76ers three weeks ago, so at least for now, the Warriors won't be getting him anyway. But in Trey Murphy III, the Dubs still have someone they can acquire who fits this category.

Reports suggest the Pelicans would trade Murphy for three unprotected first-round picks and a quality young player. Murphy is under contract at a value rate for three more seasons, meaning he should continue to be extremely valuable on the trade market through at least the 2027-28 season.

I've suggested that the Warriors should meet the three firsts asking price because Murphy's value feels insulated, whereas Brown could lose a lot of trade value because he's 3.5 years older and will be making over $60 million in each of the 2027-28 and 2028-29 seasons.

This is all to say that a Brown trade could have resulted in "mortgaging the future." But a Murphy trade could be the perfect middle ground.

For example, if the Warriors trade the Pelicans first-round picks in 2027, 2030 (existing protection of 21-30) and 2032 for Murphy, they would not be risking much with the 2027 pick with Curry still playing at a high level.

The 2030 and 2032 firsts could be very valuable. But if the Warriors found a Murphy buyer willing to trade their 2030 and 2032 firsts, the Dubs would at least have a first-round pick in every draft from 2028 on, though the ones in 2030 and 2032 would likely be lower than if they didn't trade for Murphy in the first place.

There will be risks no matter what. After trading for him, Murphy could suffer a serious injury that tanks his value. Curry could have a major decline immediately, meaning any first-round pick traded in 2027 or 2028 would have a greater chance of being in the early lottery.

But there is risk in doing nothing as well. Having a disappointing 2026-27 season could lead to a big drop in ticket sales, which would hurt from a business perspective. Or worse, Curry could leave the Warriors, which would be a revenue disaster for team governor Joe Lacob.

It's time for the Warriors to attempt to thread the needle of making an impactful trade without mortgaging the future.

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