Buyout Market Predictions for Warriors, Other Contenders, Klay, Lonzo

The Golden State Warriors have an open roster spot they should be looking to fill in the next few weeks.

They don't have to fill it, though. NBA teams are allowed to have just 14 players under standard contracts. But with Jimmy Butler out for the season and a few other players with significant injury histories, the Warriors would benefit from filling that 15th roster spot.

It's worth noting that the Warriors are at a disadvantage. As a team over the first apron, they can't sign a player whose salary is over $14.1 million. That means they can't sign any of these players if they are bought out: Klay Thompson, DeMar DeRozan, CJ McCollum, Khris Middleton, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jusuf Nurkic.

Before we make some predictions for contenders on the buyout market, let's break down where each contender stands regarding roster space. I'm loosely defining "contender" as any team with a winning record.

Contenders with No Roster Space: Thunder, Pistons, Knicks, Cavaliers, Lakers, Raptors

These teams aren't necessarily out of the buyout market moving forward. But if they wanted to get someone, they'd have to release a player currently rostered, and I suspect most of them wouldn't want to do that.

Contenders with 1 Roster Spot: Spurs, Rockets, Suns, Warriors, Magic, Heat

Note that these teams don't have to add anyone, and some may choose to wait until days before the season ends to fill the 15th roster spot as a way to save money.

Contenders with 2-Plus Roster Spots: Celtics, Nuggets, Timberwolves, 76ers*

All of these teams have to make at least one move to get to 14 standard contracts. Note that the 76ers technically have 15 players under contract right now, but two of them (Charles Bassey and Patrick Baldwin Jr.) are on 10-day contracts, so they will be down to 13 roster spots once those 10-days run out.

Predictions

Nuggets Win Lonzo Sweepstakes

On Monday, The Stein Line's Marc Stein wrote that "there were some fresh rumbles over the weekend that the Warriors might opt not to sign Lonzo Ball." It's not clear if they saw something in his medical they didn't like or if the initial reports overstated their interest, but the Warriors' hesitation is the Nuggets' gain.

Klay Gets Bought Out, Heads to San Antonio

The Spurs are in the bottom 10 in three-point percentage, so they should have interest in Thompson if he gets bought out.

Though Thompson is under contract for $17.5 million next season, I bet he'd be willing to give up a good chunk of that to join a contender.

Warriors Land Clippers' Wing After Buyout

Nicolas Batum appeared in the first 51 games of the season for the Clippers, but on Tuesday he was a healthy DNP, and on Wednesday he was out with a rest designation, which shouldn't happen for someone didn't play the previous game.

It's looking like the Clippers are going with a youth movement at the wings, leaving Bogdan Bogdanovic and Batum without a role.

The Warriors would probably not be the only team interested in Batum, but they would have the most playing time available to him immediately, and that might be enough to convince him to come aboard assuming the Clippers buy him out.

Middleton, Bogdanovic Find New Homes

If he's bought out from the Mavs, Middleton would be coveted by many teams. The Celtics have the fourth-best record in the NBA and could get Jayson Tatum back this season. That might appeal to Middleton, who would surely love to win his second championship.

Bogdanovic has had a rough season, but you'd have to believe at least one contender would be interested in him if he's bought out by the Clippers. I'll take a shot in the dark and say the Timberwolves get him.

McCollum, DeRozan, Nurkic Stay Put

The Hawks are 26-30, so it's hard to say if they will be making a playoff push or looking to save some money in late February. My guess is they'll stay in the race enough to keep McCollum for the rest of the season.

DeRozan has a partial guarantee for next season, so the Kings might want to keep him and possibly look for an offseason trade if they are committed to get younger.

Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler are out for the season, so the Jazz might want to keep Nurkic just to have a center who helps their young players develop.