Draymond Green's Fading Impact Leaves Warriors with Bleak Offseason Options

Draymond Green's struggles this season have been well documented.

His shooting percentage (40.6) is a six-year low. His assist-to-turnover ratio (1.9) is a 12-year low.

All of his impact numbers are fading. And they might actually be worse than you think.

Before we go into the ramifications of his decline, let's break down exactly what the impact numbers say.

Green's On/Off Stats

Through November, Green led the team in plus-minus at plus-100, per NBA.com.

Since Dec. 1, he's a team-worst minus-155.

This chart tells the story:

	Green On Court	Green Off Court	Net Swing
First 21 Games	+100	-80	+180
Dec. 1 to Present	-155	+212	-367
Total	-55	+132	-187

I recently wrote that the Warriors should have Green come off the bench, but these numbers make you wonder if he's become unplayable.

At the moment, the Warriors are so beat up that they don't have much of a choice but to play him, and I sense that Steve Kerr is continuing to start him as to not create a national story about Green going to the bench.

But Kerr and the rest of the Warriors brain trust have to be concerned with Green's on-court impact. Green has a $27.7 million player option for next season. He'll probably be on next year's roster. Kerr has to find Green lineups that post positive scoring differentials.

What If Green Plays All His Minutes with Curry?

Since Dec. 1, the lineups with Curry and Green have not been disastrous.

But that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.

	Green+Curry On	Curry On
Dec. 1 to Present	-12	+34

There's no doubt that Green plays better with Curry, and for most of his career, there was no doubt that Curry also played better with Green. But since Dec. 1, Curry has had better impact numbers with Green off the court. Below, you'll see how Curry has fared playing alongside other key Warriors since Dec. 1:

Two-Player Lineup	Plus/Minus Dec. 1 to Present
Curry and Melton	+65
Curry and Santos	+38
Curry and Moody	+25
Curry and Butler	+25
Curry and Podz	+18
Curry and Horford	+17
Curry and Green	-12

It makes sense that Kerr was matching virtually all of Green's minutes with Curry's minutes before Curry got hurt. And the result was that the Warriors were nearly breaking even in Green's minutes.

But at some point Kerr has to ask himself if Green is holding Curry back. And if the answer is yes, what are the Warriors going to do with Green this offseason and beyond?

Warriors' Bleak Offseason Options

If Green opts in, the Warriors can seek a trade. Green's value has never been lower, but they could attach first-round draft capital to a Green-centered package to get something of value.

But I'm guessing they don't have any interest in this route. Team governor Joe Lacob seems to want to keep all future first-round picks unless the Warriors are getting an incredible value in a trade. Green is not going to bring back an incredible value.

So the next option is to build a roster that enhances Green (and everyone else), and to do that they would likely benefit from Green declining his player option and signing a two-year deal worth more total money but less annually. For example, a two-year deal worth $34 million would bring Green's 2026-27 cap number down to $17 million, which would give the Warriors $10.7 million more in cap flexibility.

Whether Green will be amenable to this is the biggest question, but the other question is, what's the plan to use that money?

That paycut would make it easier for Golden State to have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception worth $15.1 million. It might cost the Warriors that entire exception to keep De'Anthony Melton.

Once that's used, the Warriors have no other obvious way to get better.

They were arguably a piece short even when they had Curry, Green, Jimmy Butler and Melton healthy. They probably won't have Butler until after next year's All-Star break, and even when he's back, their ceiling is essentially the same team they have this season except with a year more mileage.

That's a recipe for a lost season.