Projecting Warriors' Starting Lineup and Rotation vs. Clippers for Play-In Game

After a season marred by injuries, the Golden State Warriors don't have a set starting lineup or rotation heading into Wednesday's play-in game against the Los Angeles Clippers.

I'll do my best anyway to project what each could look like.

Note that Steve Kerr has already said Stephen Curry will not exceed 40 minutes. It's not clear how far under Curry will land, but I settled on 34 here.

Starters [First 5 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs]

Lineup: Steph, Melton, Podz, Green, Porzingis

It would be easier to predict who the Warriors will start if we knew who the Clippers will start.

LA has six players who have started more than half of its games, and the only two who are locked into the first five are Darius Garland and Kawhi Leonard. If the Clippers want to go big, they'll start John Collins and Brook Lopez. If they want to go small, they'll start Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr.

The fact that Kerr started De'Anthony Melton and Brandin Podziemski on Sunday suggests he'll do the same on Wednesday, which means Gui Santos will come off the bench.

But if the Clippers go with a big lineup, the Warriors can start Santos alongside Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis to match their size.

My guess is LA will have Collins come off the bench, which will allow Golden State to play its smaller starting lineup.

In theory, this starting lineup should be Golden's best five-man unit. But they have virtually no experience together, so who knows how they will perform.

Next 4 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs

Lineup: Steph, GPII, Podz, Santos, Green

According to Cleaning the Glass, this is the Warriors' highest-rated lineup that a) has at least 27 possessions played and b) can actually play on Wednesday (i.e., a lineup that doesn't feature Jimmy Butler or Moses Moody).

In 43 possessions, it has a plus-37.4 net rating.

The question is who will guard Leonard? Santos has the size, but he's not used to guarding top-tier players. Green is a better option, but that would leave Santos as the 5, which is something he's also not used to.

Those are legitimate issues, but keep in mind that this lineup has a 141.9 offensive rating, so the Warriors might risk some defensive problems for some offensive continuity.

Last 3 Minutes of 1st, 3rd Qs

Lineup: Melton, GPII, Richard, Santos, Horford

Will Richard and Gary Payton II check in with the task of creating havoc on the defensive end. Melton, Payton and Richard are Golden State's leaders in steal rate.

Al Horford also checks in for the first time. The 39-year-old has an outrageous 197 career playoff games.

First 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs

Lineup: Steph, Melton, Richard, Horford, Porzingis

The Horford-Porzingis double-big lineups have a plus-5.2 net rating in 91 possessions, per CTG.

They get some run here with Steph, Melton and Richard, who have had a plus-30.8 net rating in 89 possessions.

Next 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs

Lineup: Podz, Seth, Santos, Green, Horford

Seth Curry checks in for some offensive firepower for a unit that needs it.

There's a case to be made that no lineup should be without Steph, Melton and Porzingis, but the Warriors have to find rest for them somewhere.

Closing Lineup [Last 4 Minutes of 2nd, 4th Qs]

Lineup: Steph, Melton, Podz, Green, Porzingis

The Warriors close with their starting lineup, which should be a strong unit.

The quartet of Steph, Melton, Podz and Green has a plus-49.2 net rating in 59 possessions, per CTG.

There's reason to believe Porzingis will enhance this group with his shot-blocking and offensive prowess.

Green will be tasked with guarding Leonard at the start and finish of the game. That's a tall order, but Green is Golden State's best on-ball defender for a big wing like Kawhi.

Final Minutes Distribution

Steph: 34
Green: 34
Podz: 34
Melton: 32
Porzingis: 26
Horford: 22
Santos: 22
GPII: 14
Richard: 14
Seth: 8

Final Thoughts

There's a world in which the Warriors go to Charles Bassey or Pat Spencer for a short stint, but it's likely these 10 will make up the rotation.

One could argue that Green shouldn't play so much more than Porzingis or Horford, but keep in mind that Green played 40 minutes in last year's Game 7 against the Rockets and the Warriors need Green on the court to guard Leonard. In a do-or-die game, Kerr will likely ride with Steph and Draymond as much as he can.

Podz enters the playoffs on a heater (20.1 PPG, 42.4 3PT% in last 11 games). He has a good chance to lead the Warriors in minutes.

Melton should also play a ton as the Warriors' best on-ball guard defender. He'll match up with Garland often.