Ranking Warriors, Other Suitors by Likeliness of Winning Michael Porter Jr. Sweepstakes

Michael Porter Jr. might be the biggest prize of the trade season, and thanks to The Stein Line's Jake Fischer, we know four teams that are considering making a play for him.

Fischer reported on Jan. 1 that the Golden State Warriors, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are teams to monitor in the Porter sweepstakes.

Fischer added that, "The Nets, to this point, are best characterized as listening to offers for Porter rather than actively shopping him. ... Re-tradable salary and a future first-round pick, as a result, might not be enough to pry Porter from Brooklyn midstream."

I agree with Fischer that the Nets should be looking for offers with two first-round picks for Porter. If they get those, they should trade him to accelerate their rebuild.

I ranked the four teams to monitor on a combination of two factors: first, how strong of an argument they have to trade for him, and second, how strong their trade package would be.

Each was ranked on a scale of 1-5. For example, a 1 in quality of trade package would be mean it's low quality, and a 5 would mean it's high quality.

4. Bucks

How strong the argument is to trade for him: 2
Quality of potential trade package: 3

The Bucks have traded the rights to all of their first-round picks for the next five years, so the only firsts they can trade are in 2031 and 2032. They can’t outright trade both due to league rules, but they can trade one and make the other a first-round pick swap.

A package with both might intrigue the Nets, but the question is do the Bucks want to mortgage more of their future to give Giannis Antetokounmpo more help when the two-time MVP has been flirting with trade demands for years.

The worst-case scenario is the Bucks fall short in the playoffs and then trade Giannis in the offseason. Sure, the Bucks would recoup some draft capital dealing him, but not nearly enough to position themselves for a strong rebuild.

The more prudent move would be to hold on to these picks now and embrace the rebuild.

The Bucks are 15-20 after all. Potentially having to win series against the Pistons, Knicks and Celtics while starting on the road would be extremely difficult even if they had Porter.

3. Bulls

How strong the argument is to trade for him: 1
Quality of potential trade package: 5

At 17-17, the Bulls could go either way at the trade deadline. They probably shouldn’t trade high-value draft capital, but they could convince themselves that Porter is worth it if they are sure they can extend him so he’s with the team for the next half-decade.

Porter’s next contract could be over $200 million, so it would be a big risk.

If the Bulls go for him, they will have the most intriguing trade package for him.

First, they can offer Coby White, a 25-year-old scoring guard the Nets would likely be interested in keeping long-term.

Then they can offer first-round draft capital that could be very valuable. It would not be surprising if Chicago ends up in the lottery for the next couple years even with Porter, which the Nets would be hoping for if they traded him to the Windy City.

2. Pistons

How strong the argument is to trade for him: 5
Quality of potential trade package: 2

The Pistons have more incentive to go after Porter than any team in the league. They have a star point guard in Cade Cunningham and a star center in Jalen Duren, but they are missing a reliable third scorer.

Right now, their third-leading scorer is Tobias Harris at 13.4 points per game. That’s not gonna cut it in the later rounds of the playoffs.

The issue for the Pistons is their first-round picks will not be as valuable as those of the other teams on this list, so to make up for it they will have to give up an intriguing young player on the roster.

There’s no way they’d trade Ausar Thompson, so they’d have to hope the Nets are intrigued enough by a package led by Ron Holland or Jaden Ivey.

I’m guessing the Nets would rather have the chance at a high lottery pick or two than Holland or Ivey, but if I’m wrong about that, they will win the sweepstakes the moment they offer one of them.

1. Warriors

How strong the argument is to trade for him: 4
Quality of potential trade package: 4

The Warriors need Porter even more than the Pistons, but there is an argument to be made that they should keep all of their future first-round draft capital and come to terms with the fact that no move will make them a title contender.

After all, they are 18-17 in a conference with four juggernauts, including the 30-5 defending NBA champs.

With that said, they own all of their future first-round picks, so trading two of them will not cripple their future. And considering they are already all but guaranteed to trade Jonathan Kuminga, they might as well shoot for a big fish like Porter instead of someone who can’t fill their huge need for a third scorer.

The issue is Fischer reported the Nets don’t have much interest in Kuminga, which means either a) a third team will have to get involved or b) the Warriors will have to give up more valuable first-round picks than they’d like.

For example, the Warriors probably wouldn’t mind giving up a 2026 first-round pick that will probably be outside the lottery as one of the two firsts they trade. But if the Nets say they don’t want the 2026 first and instead want a package with a 2027 first as well as either a 2028 first-round swap or a 2029 first, that would be a bigger price to pay.

Stephen Curry is still playing at a high-enough level that they should be willing to make one last win-now move, and trading for Porter would qualify.