Why Bill Simmons' LeBron James, Warriors Prediction Isn't That Wild

LeBron James will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and there are have been rumblings that he and the Lakers will split.

James is still playing at a high level, which suggests the 41-year-old will play at least one more season.

Despite speculation that James will return to the Cleveland Cavaliers for his final chapter, The Ringer's Bill Simmons went a different direction.

"I think it's going to be Golden State," Simmons said. "That would be my bet."

He then laid out several reasons.

"Golden State makes the most sense to me because they actually need him," Simmons said. "And the narrative of I'm gonna finish my career with Steph Curry, the other great player of my generation. We won [an Olympic gold medal] together. The team kinda needs me, so it's a farewell tour combined with the team needs me.

"I'm gonna play with Draymond. Steve Kerr, who's coached me. And this is where I'm gonna end it. That makes more sense to me than I'm just gonna be awkwardly shoehorned into [a Cavaliers team] that had a chance to win a title."

How the Warriors Can Sign LeBron

The most realistic way for James to end up with the Warriors is for him to sign for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE). It would be a one-year contract worth approximately $15.1 million.

If your first reaction to this is that James won't take a $37 million pay cut, you're surely not alone. But keep in mind that most teams won't have the cap space to sign him, and the Lakers might have no interest in a sign-and-trade path.

If the Lakers a) let James walk for nothing and b) delay re-signing Austin Reaves until after they have made the rest of their FA moves, they will have about $50 million in cap space.

They'd probably prefer that plan than taking back any salary in a James sign-and-trade.

James might really have to settle for someone's NTMLE. At that price, many teams would be interested, as he would be a bargain. But there's no doubt that the Warriors would have a good chance at him if the best offer he gets is the NTMLE, as James has made comments over the years that he'd like to play with Curry, and it doesn't hurt that he's friends with Draymond Green.

What Warriors' Roster Could Look Like with James

If the Warriors used the mid-level exception on James, they'd almost assuredly lose De'Anthony Melton to free agency. But they might be able to keep the rest of their core players

I put in bold players that are free agents or have some type of option in their contract this offseason.

Curry: $62.6 million
Butler: $56.8 million
Green: $18 million
James: $15.1 million
Moody: $12.5 million
Santos: $10 million
Porzingis: $8 million
Horford: $6 million
Podziemski: $5.7 million
Richard: $2.2 million

Perhaps the key to the Warriors' offseason is getting Draymond Green to decline his $27.7 million player option and take a two-year deal with more total money but less annual value. To help bring James to the Warriors, I could see him taking even less than the two-year, $36 million deal listed above.

The Warriors have Kristaps Porzingis' Bird rights, so they can re-sign him without using any part of their mid-level exception, which in this scenario is going to James. Porzingis takes a massive pay cut from his $30.7 million 2025-26 salary, but considering his injury/illness history, $8 million might be the best offer he gets.

It's not clear what Santos' restricted free agent market will be, but I'm sure the Warriors would be thrilled to have him back at around $10 million. Al Horford has a player option for about $6 million that he could exercise—and he might want to so he can play on a team with James and Curry.

With this prediction, the Warriors would have 10 players under contract for about $197 million. The'd have about $13 million to sign their draft picks and hand out veteran minimum and stay below the first apron, which wouldn't be an issue.