Predicting Warriors' Final Win-Loss Record, Playoff Seed at All-Star Break

Everyone around the Golden State Warriors acknowledges that the team's ceiling is capped with Jimmy Butler out for the season, but Stephen Curry is still setting a goal to get a top-six seed.

“If we can be healthy come March and April,” Curry told reporters, “hopefully get out of the play-in, battle, secure ourselves into a playoff series—and if not, find our way into one—we feel like we’re still a dangerous team.”

The Warriors are in eighth in the Western Conference with a 29-26 record. There's essentially no way in which they fall to 11th, but the Blazers (27-29) and Clippers (26-28) are close enough to them that they could fall to 10th if they struggle down the stretch.

On the flip side, the Warriors are 4.5 games back of the Lakers (33-21) and Timberwolves (34-22), who are tied for fifth. If the Dubs finish strong, they could catch one of them and the Suns (32-23) to get the sixth seed.

Before making a record prediction, let's break down Golden State's schedule strength.

Schedule Strength

Games against bad/tanking teams (10)

The Warriors have games remaining against the Wizards (2), Kings (2), Jazz (1), Grizzlies (1), Nets (1), Bulls (1), Mavericks (1) and Pelicans (1).

Among this group, only the Pelicans have no incentive to lose because they traded their 2026 first-round pick.

The Warriors should take care of business in most of these 10 games, but note that they lost to the Mavs on Jan. 22 with Stephen Curry playing.

Other games against teams with losing records (3)

The Warriors have games left against the Clippers (2) and Hawks (1).

Both of these teams sold this trade season—the Clippers gave up Ivica Zubac and James Harden, while the Hawks traded Trae Young—but neither has full rights to its 2026 first-round pick, so there's virtually no incentive to tank.

It should be noted that the Hawks beat the Warriors without Young on Jan. 11, and Golden State had Curry and Jimmy Butler playing.

Zubac has dominated the Warriors for years, so it's great news for Golden State that he's now a Pacer.

Games against contenders (14)

The Warriors have games remaining against the Celtics (2), Nuggets (2), Rockets (2), Lakers (2), Thunder (1), Pistons (1), Spurs (1), Cavaliers (1), Knicks (1) and Timberwolves (1).

It's a gauntlet. In fact, these 10 teams own the 10 best records in the NBA.

The Warriors have wins over the Spurs (2), Nuggets, Lakers, Cavaliers, Knicks and Timberwolves, so it's not like they are going to lose all 14 of these.

But without Butler, they will be underdogs in most of them.

Win-Loss Prediction and Playoff Seed

The Warriors have a minus-3.1 net rating when Butler is off the floor this season, per Cleaning the Glass.

Obviously, if the Warriors don't improve that net rating, they will lose more games than they win down the stretch.

But I'm optimistic they'll be better than that without Butler moving forward.

First off, Kristaps Porzingis will make Golden State better when healthy. Over his career, his teams are 2.1 points per 100 possessions better with KP on the court. This season, the Hawks are 8.0 points better with KP on the court.

Second, Gui Santos' emergence feels legit. He's averaging 14.7 points on 63.1 percent shooting over his last seven games.

Still, they will be at a talent disadvantage against all of the top 10 teams unless those teams are resting some of their key players.

My guess is the Warriors will go 10-3 against the under-.500 teams and 5-9 against the over-.500 teams.

That's a 15-12 finish, which would give the Warriors a 44-38 record.

That should keep them in eighth in the Western Conference.

We don't know who will be seventh, ninth and 10th, so this prediction is subject to change. But for now, I'll predict they lose their first play-in game before winning their second one to secure the eighth seed.