Why Warriors Should Close Games with This Lineup to Enhance Curry, Butler, Green

The Golden State Warriors have a depth issue.

They have six players with a plus net rating, per Cleaning the Glass. Their other eight players are in the negative, with Al Horford (-14.1) and Buddy Hield (-17.0) being the most disappointing of that bunch.

Gary Payton II (-4.1) and Jonathan Kuminga (-6.6) have not been as destructive to their lineups, but they haven't had much positive teamwide impact a month into season.

Is Steve Kerr overcomplicating this? The Warriors' best lineup might just be the one playing their five best players—you know, the one that dominated down the stretch last year.

Closing with Curry, Podz, Moody, Butler, Green

Last year, this lineup had a plus-17.9 net rating in a team-high 459 possessions. The Warriors went 18-4 in games it appeared in.

Even though it's a smaller lineup, this quintet had a 51.2 percent rebounding rate, more than holding its own. It forced turnovers at an amazing rate (96th percentile), and it shot the ball pretty well (66th percentile in effective field-goal percentage), showing that Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody provide enough shooting to support a lineup with Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green.

Against the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, the Warriors essentially closed with a Curry-Podz-Payton-Butler-Green lineup, as it played from 3:46 to 49.9 left in the fourth quarter. The lineup entered the game down four and exited the game down four.

Would things have gone differently had Kerr played Moody over Payton? We'll never know, and I'm sure Kerr would argue that the bigger issue was the first 44 minutes that had the Warriors trailing by four to a short-handed Blazers team coming off four straight losses.

But it isn't clear why the Dubs have gone away from their best lineup from last year.

Overall, the Podz-and-Moody-closing-with-the-three-stars lineup has played just 23 possessions this season with a plus-25.9 net rating.

Trusting the Two-Way Impact of Moody and Podz

I acknowledge that Moody was not having his best game Friday, so one could argue playing Payton over him made sense. In theory, Payton can use his quicker feet to be more disruptive defending ball-handlers, and Payton is more comfortable than Moody as a roller and paint finisher.

But Moody is the better overall player, so it should be rare that he's sitting in clutch games.

The one play that stands out is Payton getting caught stabbing at a Deni Avdija drive when the player he was guarding, Caleb Love, was just one pass away. Love made the three to extend Portland's lead to four.

Part of the value of Moody and Podz is they don't make many mistakes like this. They are where they are supposed to be, which allows Green to be at his best as the defensive conductor. They also space the floor well enough to give Curry and Butler more driving lanes.

When Kuminga returns, the game-to-game closing lineup decision will be even tougher. Kerr will have to consider how well each player has played to that point and decide if the player(s) with the hot hand should close with Curry, Butler and Green.

But unless there's a compelling reason to do otherwise, I'm suggesting the default should be Curry, Podz, Moody, Butler and Green.

The combination of Podz and Moody's three-point shooting and steady defense has proved to enhance the Curry-Butler-Green trio on both ends.

It's past time to use the lineup that spearheaded Golden State's great finish to last season.