Warriors' Best-Case Scenario This Offseason Might Not Be What You Think

The Golden State Warriors are rumored to be going after Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard or LeBron James this offseason.

With Antetokounmpo still in the middle of his prime at 31 years old and Leonard in his late prime at 34 years old, one might conclude that trading for one of them would be better for the Warriors than signing James.

But the best-case scenario would actually be signing the 41-year-old. Here's why.

Warriors Need to Be Careful with Their Future Draft Picks

I've written countless times that the Warriors should have traded more of their future first-round picks to help the team compete for championships in 2023, 2024 and 2025 and even in 2026 prior to Jimmy Butler's injury.

I hate that I'm finally at the point where I support the strategy to be cautious with their future firsts.

As exciting as it would be to get Antetokounmpo, giving up potentially four unprotected firsts as well as two first-round pick swaps would hamstring Golden State's future. And that doesn't even account for the fact that Butler would probably be used as outgoing salary, so the Warriors would be left with a Big Two of Curry and Antetokounmpo but not enough support around them to make a serious championship push.

Some might think acquiring Leonard would be the perfect compromise. He might cost Butler and two first-round picks. When he's healthy, that's a fair price to pay.

But note that Leonard has played in under 60 regular-season games in five of the last seven seasons.

He suffered a season-ending torn meniscus in the 2023 playoffs. Then in the 2024 playoffs, knee inflammation kept him out of the last three games of the Clippers' first-round series loss.

If the Warriors trade future first-round picks, they need to a) have a plan for serious contention and b) be as sure as they can be the player they acquired will be healthy in the playoffs.

I don't see how they can achieve both in trading for either Antetokounmpo or Leonard.

Signing James Is Superior for 2 Reasons

The Warriors wouldn't necessarily be serious championship contenders with James, and he hasn't been a perfect bastion of health either (missed 22 games in 2025-26). But the fact that he'd cost no draft capital and allow the Warriors to keep Butler makes him the superior offseason play.

The only way the Warriors will get James is by signing him to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $15 million. With Stephen Curry, James and Butler (when healthy), the Warriors would have a Big Three that could do real playoff damage.

They would still need to make good moves on the margins, but you'd have to believe signing James would make Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis more likely to return on discounted salaries.

A trade with the Bucks or Clippers could cost the Warriors the 11th pick of the 2026 draft. But signing James would allow the Warriors to keep the player they selected, and there's reason to believe that player could have an immediate impact.

Other Scenarios Are Not as Fruitful

For the people reading this saying, "Anybody but James!" I hate to inform you that the Warriors' other options are much less fruitful.

Using most, if not all, of the NTMLE on Anfernee Simons or Collin Sexton would help the team, but James is far and away the best player the Warriors could realistically get with it. Even dividing it into two quality players wouldn't provide the impact James would.

Sure, using the NTMLE on anyone other than James would make the Warriors younger, but it's not like Simons or Sexton (or any of the other options) is a future cornerstone. The goal should be contention over Steve Kerr's plea for younger legs if those are the only two options.

The Warriors are over the cap, so they can't go above the NTMLE for any free agent, and once they use the NTMLE, they can't go over the veteran minimum for anyone. So if you see people say they should go for Andrew Wiggins (player option), Ayo Dosunmu or Peyton Watson (restricted), note that they have no realistic way of getting them.

On the trade front, the Warriors could make another push for Trey Murphy III, but the price would be enormous—maybe as many as four first-round picks. That still might be a better idea than going for Antetokounmpo or Leonard, but it comes with its own concerns about hamstringing the future too much for the present.

Signing James is a great in-between. It helps the present immensely, but it doesn't cripple Golden State's future.

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