Warriors Must Avoid Podz Contract Mistake That Is Plaguing Rival

Brandin Podziemski is eligible to sign a contract extension with the Golden State Warriors now, and there's no doubt he's earned a significant raise.

He's making just $5.7 million in the final year of his rookie-scale contract.

But the Warriors must avoid overpaying him to avoid the kind of future cap constraints that are plaguing the Denver Nuggets.

Podz's Value

Podz's agency will have a few data points to argue that he's worth $25 million per season.

The 23-year-old's ability to rebound and take charges has made him an analytical darling on defense.

On offense, he has shot above the league average from three all three seasons and he has enough secondary ball-handling ability to score in the lane and play-make.

But it seems like he's already plateaued.

He's overexposed as a primary offensive creator, and he doesn't have the lateral quickness and athleticism to be a quality on-ball defender.

Among the shooting guards making over $20 million, they are all either very good scorers or on-ball defenders, except for one or two overpaid exceptions. Podz will try to argue he's worth that much due to the combined value of all his contributions.

Braun's Crippling Contract

The Nuggets gave Braun a five-year, $125 million contract after his third-year breakout season, and it's proving to be a mistake.

Braun is a high-IQ player who takes advantage of Nikola Jokic's gravity to get cutting layups that boost his field-goal percentage. He's also a better on-ball defender than Podz.

As a low-volume three-point shooter, Braun should shoot a high percentage and did for his second and third years. But he struggled in his fourth season, making just 30.1 percent of his threes.

In today's NBA, it's almost impossible to win a title without several well-above-average players. The Nuggets have three in Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, but by AAV, Braun should be their fourth.

Like Podz, he's more of a slightly above-average player, and the Nuggets are now stuck with no flexibility to improve the roster.

Where Podz's Contract Should Land

Finding a player's contract value is tricky because there are always examples of similar players who are overpaid and underpaid.

For example, Moses Moody got a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension in 2024, and I'd argue he's a more valuable player than Podz. But before suffering a patellar tendon tear, Moody was clearly underpaid. It would be disingenuous to say Podz deserves less than the underpaid Moody got.

With that said, there is value to seeing the range of what players similar to Podz are making.

Player	Years	Total	AAV
Braun	5	$125M	$25M
A. Caruso	4	$81.1M	$20.3M
J. Hart	4	$80.9M	$20.2M
G. Allen	4	$70M	$17.5M
Q. Grimes	4	$60M	$15M

If Podz had the impact of Alex Caruso and Josh Hart, he'd be worth more than $20 million.

The issue for Podz is he doesn't play the on-ball defense they do. Maybe Podz will prove much more valuable offensively one day, but at the moment Podz is best-suited doing what they do, which is mostly play off the ball and be ready to shoot or make the right read when it comes his way.

Grayson Allen is a better shooter than Podz, but his defense has always left much to be desired. The Suns gave him the contract extension in 2024. He might have gotten less on the open market, but by signing with his own team, he didn't have to worry about getting squeezed.

Meanwhile, Quentin Grimes had to go into free agency to get his contract. He wisely took the Lakers' offer even though he could have argued he deserved at least much as Allen due to being more durable and being younger at the time of signing. Had Grimes waited for something better, he likely would've gotten less.

With all of this mind, the correct contract value for Podz is in the $17 million to $19 million AAV range.

ClutchPoints' Brett Siegel reported Podz would want $22 million to $24 million AAV, while the Warriors would want the contract between $15 million and $18 million AAV. The Warriors don't need to go into a full compromise here because Podz's agency should know going into free agency is risky.

A four-year, $72 million contract should get both parties to say yes.

That would be seven million dollars per season cheaper than Braun's, which could have several benefits for the Warriors down the road.

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