NFL Coaching Hot Seat: With Jeff Fisher and Gus Bradley out, who else is at risk and who's safe?

The reeling, underachieving Los Angeles Rams fired coach Jeff Fisher last week, making Fisher the first of the league's 32 coaches to be shown the door this season. Jacksonville followed suit Sunday, relieving Gus Bradley of his duties after the Jaguars blew a 13-point lead and lost in Houston. Odds are, those won't be the last coaches shown the door. With “Black Monday” a little less than two weeks away, what does the future hold for the remaining 30 NFL head coaches? The following are almost certainly safe, for now: Bill Belichick, Patriots; Adam Gase, Dolphins; Mike Mularkey, Titans; Jack Del Rio, Raiders; Andy Reid, Chiefs; Gary Kubiak, Broncos; Ben McAdoo, Giants; Ron Rivera, Panthers; Mike Zimmer, Vikings; Dan Quinn, Falcons; Dirk Koetter, Bucs; Pete Carroll, Seahawks; Bruce Arians, Cardinals; Jason Garrett, Cowboys. The rest could feel at least a little heat, even the successful ones. We break it down, starting with the least likely and moving toward the most likely to be let go. —CHRIS BURKE

Author:
SI Staff
Publish date:
Dec 13, 2016

NFL Coaching Hot Seat: With Jeff Fisher and Gus Bradley out, who else is at risk and who's safe?

Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins

SEAT TEMPERATURE: COMFORTABLE—Without a doubt, Gruden is much closer to safety than a scorching seat, but...well, Dan Snyder still owns the team. He’s unpredictable. Gruden won the division last season and has helped turn Kirk Cousins into a franchise tag-worthy QB, but sliding out of the playoffs this year could make him at least a tad uncomfortable.

Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans

SEAT TEMPERATURE: COMFORTABLE — Here is the question that often is asked, even of coaches who produce moderate success: Has the team gone as far as it can go under its current leadership? The Texans finished 9-7 in both 2014 and '15, with a disastrous quarterback situation. Now they have another QB mess, have been without J.J. Watt ... and are headed toward the 9-7 range again. It's probably too soon to bail on O'Brien, but check back if Houston coughs up the AFC South to Tennessee.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers

SEAT TEMPERATURE: COMFORTABLE — Tomlin's seat was on the verge of growing considerably more uncomfortable about a month ago, when Pittsburgh was sitting at 4–5 and on a four-game losing streak. Now, it's 9-5 and controls its destiny in the AFC North. The lone concern would be Tomlin's style growing stale after 10 seasons—the Steelers have just one playoff win since 2011. But he's well-respected and has a .637 career win percentage. He's staying.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

SEAT TEMPERATURE: COMFORTABLE — SI's Greg Bedard broached the subject of Harbaugh's future ahead of Week 13, comparing Harbaugh's situation with that of ex-Ravens coach Brian Billick, who was let go following a 5-11 season. That's the same mark Baltimore had last season. And while it will finish with a better record in 2016, missing the playoffs in consecutive years (and three of the last four) would not sit well up top. As with Tomlin, this feels like a long shot ... but not an impossible outcome.

Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions

SEAT TEMPERATURE: COMFORTABLE (FOR NOW)—The final three games of the regular season could determine what happens with Caldwell. The Lions are sitting atop the NFC North and with first-round bye position right now, at 9–4, but what if they wrap the regular season at 9–7 and just miss the playoffs? Even with a postseason trip and a loss, it’s conceivable that first-year GM Bob Quinn would want to handpick his own hire—ex-GM Martin Mayhew brought in Caldwell. Quinn’s ties to a pair of coaching candidates in New England, O.C. Josh McDaniels and D.C. Matt Patricia, could come into play here.

Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles

SEAT TEMPERATURE: WARMING UP — One year is not nearly enough time to evaluate a head coach, but Pederson also wouldn't be the first sent packing after 16 games. Mike Mularkey, Hue Jackson, Jim Mora Jr., and others are on that dubious list. Pederson recently had to vouch for his own job security. That happened before the Eagles' Week 14 loss, their fourth straight and eighth in their past 10 games. They lost again Sunday to Baltimore, although showed in the process that they haven't quit on Pederson. Fair or not, Pederson's job will be tied to Carson Wentz's progress for as long as both are in Philadelphia.

John Fox, Chicago Bears

SEAT TEMPERATURE: WARMING UP — Chicago has been obliterated by injuries and is on its third-string quarterback, yet it has put scares into four possible playoff teams in recent weeks: Tennessee, New York, Detroit and then Green Bay on Sunday, rallying from 17 down in the fourth quarter before losing in heartbreaking fashion. Those efforts should be enough for Fox to get a third year with the Bears. Flip side: The Bears are 9-21 in Fox's brief tenure and easily the fourth-best team in their own division. Where's the progress?

Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

SEAT TEMPERATURE: WARMING UP — McCarthy's status appeared much less stable a mere three games ago, when the Packers were 4-6 and struggling on both sides of the ball. Now, they're 8–6 and their ninth playoff berth in McCarthy's 11 years is well within reach. Should they fall short, though, a second look at what went down this year—particularly with the McCarthy-Aaron Rodgers dynamic—would be in order.

Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints

SEAT TEMPERATURE: VERY WARM — The five-year, reported $45 million contract extension Payton signed in the off-season throws a bit of a wrench into this one. Of course, Fisher just landed an extension and he's out the door in L.A. Payton is the winningest coach in Saints history, but the Saints are a combined 20-26 the past three seasons, and the Drew Brees window is starting to close. Adding to the intrigue: CBS's Jason La Canfora reported Sunday that the Saints could look to trade Payton this off-season, "and it would not likely require hefty trade compensation."

Chip Kelly, San Francisco 49ers

SEAT TEMPERATURE: VERY WARM — This season has been a nightmare for Kelly, who won his first game and since has lost 13 straight. As mentioned above, the one-and-done is a harsh fate, but a 2-14 or 1-15 finish definitely opens the door (even if the GM is more at fault). Speaking of which, general manager Trent Baalke has to be in danger of losing his job. There's almost no chance the organization would allow him to make another coaching swap after the Jim Harbaugh-for-Jim Tomsula train wreck.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

SEAT TEMPERATURE: VERY WARM — With just about any other franchise, Lewis might already have been canned. If not, his ongoing 5-8-1 campaign would be the nail in the coffin. That's not a knock on the Cincinnati organization, though, so much as it is acknowledgement that Lewis completely changed the culture of a downtrodden team. The problem is that Lewis is in his 14th year and has yet to deliver a playoff victory. Not one. There have to be limits to patience and loyalty.

Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns

SEAT TEMPERATURE: VERY WARM — How committed are the Browns this time around to their rebuild? It would seem that the fresh front office is more dug in that previous versions, which bodes well for Jackson as he tries to lay a foundation. Still, being just the second 0-16 team in league history would be tough to swallow. The Browns almost would have to make some sort of adjustments at that point, but how high up would those tweaks come?

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts

SEAT TEMPERATURE: HEATING UP — Do we take Colts owner Jim Irsay at his word? Sunday, he told USA Today's Tom Pelissero that he's "not anticipating making any changes," even though the Colts are all but eliminated from playoff contention. Both Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson received contract extensions last off-season, just when it seemed like one or both would be let go. Despite having Andrew Luck back for the majority of the 2016 season, the Colts look even further away from title contention now.

Todd Bowles, New York Jets

SEAT TEMPERATURE: HOT — Any boost Bowles' status received from a frantic, Bryce Petty-led rally in San Francisco vanished on Saturday night, when the Jets were run out of their own building by the Dolphins. That loss was the team's 10th of the season, a year after New York posted a surprising 10–6 mark. The Jets gave Rex Ryan six seasons before cutting him loose, but it was a 4–12 record that sealed his fate. Could a matching finish do the same to Bowles? The Jets will have to win in New England or beat Buffalo to avoid another 12-loss campaign.

Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers

SEAT TEMPERATURE: ON FIRE — The Chargers never throw in the towel. At some point, that's not enough, regardless of how many injuries a team has suffered, for a coach to hang onto his post. San Diego made the playoffs and won a game there in McCoy's first season (2013), but it is 18-28 since and eliminated from postseason contention this year. The continued rumors of relocation, likely to L.A. if it happens, also may work against McCoy. If the Chargers want a fresh start, they can't have one with a coach who's been stuck in the mud for multiple seasons.

Rex Ryan, Buffalo Bills

SEAT TEMPERATURE: ON FIRE — ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Sunday that Ryan "is probably approaching his final games as the Bills' head coach," echoing reports that came out ahead of Week 14's action. The Bills showed life after firing offensive coordinator Greg Roman two games into the year—they promptly won four straight and then were 6-5 after Thanksgiving weekend. But back-to-back losses put their playoff hopes on fumes. Even a Week 15 victory over Cleveland did little to help the cause. It did, however, bump Ryan back up to .500 (15-15) in his Buffalo tenure.