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  • Two of this week's best Sunday afternoon gambling plays come against the spread and total in the Panthers-Eagles game. Where else can smart bets be found for Week 7?
By Scott Gramling
October 19, 2018

Bettors looking for Sunday afternoon value in Week 7 should focus on matchups in Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Jacksonville. But where should they put their money?

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

9:30 a.m. ET

• The Chargers are 29-4-1 against the spread when facing AFC South division opponents since the start of the 2002 season.

• Under the total is 9-2 in games the Chargers have played coming off a win since the start of the 2016 season.

• The Chargers are 9-0-1 against the spread when facing the Titans since their move to Tennessee in 1998.

Side: Chargers (-6.5)

Confidence Level: Very High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)

Total: Under 45

Confidence Level: Moderate


New England Patriots (-2.5) at Chicago Bears

1:00 p.m.

• Chicago is 9-1 against the spread as a home underdog since the start of the 2016 season.

• Under the total is 11-5-1 in games New England has played on the road since the start of the 2016 season.

• Chicago’s ability to pressure the quarterback makes the Bears a live underdog in this one.

Side: Bears (+2.5)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Under 49

Confidence Level: Moderate


Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Cleveland is 0-10 ATS vs. defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 9-1 in Browns games vs. defenses allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt since the start of 2016.

• It’s been more than three calendar years since the Browns last won a game on the road.

Side: Buccaneers (-3.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Over 50.5

Confidence Level: High


Detroit Lions (-3) at Miami Dolphins

1:00 p.m.

• Detroit is 5-1 against the spread when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2012 season.

• Over the total is 7-0 in Miami home games against teams with a losing record since the start of the 2016 season.

• Quarterback Brock Osweiler will start for Miami in place of an injured Ryan Tannehill for a second straight week.

Side: Lions (-3)

Confidence Level: Low

Total: Over 46.5

Confidence Level: High


Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Philadelphia is 9-0 against the spread in home games following an ATS win under head coach Doug Pederson.

• Over the total is 8-0 in Philadelphia games vs. defenses allowing an average of at least 4.5 yards per carry since 2016.

• The Panthers have gone 0-4 straight up and against the spread over their past four road games in the regular season.

Side: Eagles (-4.5)

Confidence Level: Extremely High

Total: Over 45

Confidence Level: Very High


Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

1:00 p.m.

• Indianapolis is 0-8 against the spread when coming off a game of allowing 400 or more yards since the start of 2016.

• Under the total is 10-4 in games Indianapolis has played as a home favorite since the start of the 2015 season.

• Although the Bills are turning to quarterback Derek Anderson, who will be starting his fifth NFL game since the start of the 2011 season, Buffalo has a good chance to keep this one close with a defense that’s allowed a total of only 53 points over its past four games.

Side: Bills (+7.5)

Confidence Level: Moderate

Total: Under 43

Confidence Level: Low


Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets

1:00 p.m.

• Minnesota is 8-2 against the spread over its past 10 games against AFC opponents on the road.

• Over the total is 6-1 in games the Jets have played as a home underdog of three points or fewer since the start of 2015.

• After back-to-back home wins against the Broncos and Colts, the Jets face a far tougher challenge in Week 7.

Side: Vikings (-3.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 46

Confidence Level: Moderate


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)

1:00 p.m.

• Jacksonville is 7-3 against the spread over its past 10 games against AFC South opponents.

• Over the total is 4-1 in games Jacksonville has played at home against Houston since the start of the 2013 season.

• Houston comes into this one riding what might be the least impressive three-game winning streak in recent memory: The trio of games the Texans have played since a home loss to the Giants have resulted in overtime victories against the Colts and Cowboys followed by a Week 6 victory that was gift-wrapped in the form of a pick-six courtesy of Bills turnover machine Nathan Peterman.

Side: Jaguars (-4.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 41

Confidence Level: Very High


New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

4:05 p.m.

• New Orleans is 8-1 against the spread when coming off a bye since the start of the 2009 season.

• Over the total is 9-1 in games New Orleans has played when coming off a bye week since the start of the 2008 season.

• The Saints are a remarkable 14-1-1 against the spread over their past 16 games played during the month of October.

Side: Saints (+2.5)

Confidence Level: Very High

Total: Under 49.5

Confidence Level: High


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5)

4:25 p.m.

• Washington is 5-1 both straight up and against the spread over its past six home games.

• Under the total is 9-1 in games Dallas has played on the road when coming off a home win since the start of 2016.

• No opposing team has reached 105 rushing yards in a game against the Redskins this season.

Side: Redskins (-1.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Under 41.5

Confidence Level: Moderate


Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) at San Francisco 49ers

4:25 p.m.

• The Rams are 2-9-2 against the spread when facing a team with a defense that’s allowing an average of at least 350 yards per game since the start of the 2016 season.

• Over the total is 7-3 in games San Francisco has played at home since the start of last season.

• The 49ers have lost 12 straight October games, and they’re just 3-9 against the spread during that span.

Side: 49ers (+9.5)

Confidence Level: High

Total: Over 52

Confidence Level: Moderate

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HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
OUT
HOLE YARDS PAR R1 R2 R3 R4
IN
Eagle (-2)
Birdie (-1)
Bogey (+1)
Double Bogey (+2)